The United States once suspended tariffs on some goods, and the US dollar fell below the 100 mark

On April 14, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.63. Last Friday, the US dollar index continued to weaken the dollar as a safe haven due to the Trump administration's repeated recurrence on import tariffs, shaking investors' confidence in the US dollar as a safe haven, the US dollar index continued to weaken during the day, falling below the $100 mark, and finally closed down 1.08% to 99.84. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.494%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.977%. Spot gold hit a new high, refreshing its historical high to $3,245, and finally closing up 1.95% at $3,237.83 per ounce. Spot silver rose strongly during the day and finally closed up 3.42% at $32.26 per ounce. As the US Secretary of Energy said that the United States could block Iran's oil exports, the two oils rebounded, WTI crude oil continued to rise during the US session, returning to above the $60 mark, and finally closed up 2.15% to $60.96/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.49% to $64.23/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.63. The U.S. dollar index continued to decline in trading last Friday, falling to nearly 100 areas, after hitting a three-year low earlier in the day. Downward trend reflects widespread deterioration in investor confidence as latest data and central bank aihuaforex.comments depictThe dark prospects of the US economy. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell sharply in April, while the producer price index was lower than expected, further exacerbating market deflation concerns. Several Fed officials pointed out that rising inflation expectations pose risks, although short-term economic data suggest demand is weakening. From a technical point of view, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close above resistance at 100.20–100.40. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next resistance level, which is in the range of 101.70–101.90.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1375. Hovered around 1.1360 after rising in the first two trading days. The pair appreciated as the dollar weakened, and the dollar was under pressure amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, rekindling concerns about a global recession. Technically, if this attempt is successful, the EUR/USD will move to the next support level, i.e. the range of 1.1185–1.1200.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3090. U.S. President Donald Trump decided to suspend full reciprocity tariffs for 90 days last week, and the initial market reaction proved short-lived as concerns about a U.S. recession amid the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. China's 84% ​​tariff on U.S. goods came into effect on Thursday, while Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145%. These developments have weakened confidence in the U.S. economy, given that the U.S. still imports several irreplaceable materials from China. This in turn drags the U.S. dollar index tracking the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies to its lowest level since April 2022 and continues to be a tailwind for the GBP/U.S. currency pair. Technically, the closest support for GBP/USD is at 1.2980–1.3000. A break below 1.2980 level will push the GBP/USD toward 50MA1.2923.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3217.57. Gold fell, breaking a record three-day record high of $3,245 on Friday. Safe-haven flows appear to be eased as traders are delighted by the turnaround on Wall Street on Friday and some positive news about the U.S.-China tariff war, temporarily alleviating bullish pressure on gold prices.

Technical: Gold prices closed at an all-time high last week, up more than 6.5%, and the outlook remains bullish. Rising inflation risks, weakening the U.S. dollar and growing demand from central banks continue to support the rising trend of gold prices. Unless trade tensions are effectively resolved or market confidence in US fiscal policy recovers, gold demand may continue.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading at 61.05 Recently. International oil prices rose sharply by more than $1 as U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. could cut off Iran’s crude oil exports across the board to force Iran to concessions on its nuclear program. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its global economic growth forecast on Thursday and warned that tariffs could hit oil prices. The agency also lowered its U.S. and global crude oil demand estimates this year and next year.

Technical: From a technical perspective, the tone of the market this week will depend on traders' reaction to the $63.70 turnover. However, the overall long-term trend is expected to remain down until buyers can break through the 52-week moving average of $70.08. This indicates that traders may maintain a "sell rebound" pattern.

Forex market trading reminder on April 14, 2025

①Pending China's March trade account

②Pending OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report

③Pending President Xi Jinping pays a state visit to Vietnam

④Pending US President Trump releases semiconductor tariff details

⑤ 10:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference on imports and exports in the first quarter

⑥20:30 Canada's February wholesale sales monthly rate

⑦23:00 The US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation in March

⑧The next day, the Federal Reserve Barkin made a speech on crossing the economic fog"

⑨The next day, the Federal Reserve Hack made a speech on the role played by the Federal Reserve

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