Under Trump's policy deadlock, global focus on March PMI data

After outperforming other currencies for three consecutive days, the US dollar (USD) has struggled to find demand early this week. Later in the day, S&PGlobal will release preliminary data on the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Germany, the euro zone, the United Kingdom and the United States.

After a sharp decline in the first half of March, the U.S. dollar index closed up the previous week, thanks to the Fed's cautious outlook for further easing policies and some optimistic data released by the U.S. In early Monday, the U.S. dollar index corrected lower and fluctuated around 104.00. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures rose 0.6% to 0.9% in early European session, highlighting an improvement in risk sentiment. The White House is adjusting its approach to tariffs scheduled to aihuaforex.come into effect on April 2, potentially omitting a range of industry-specific tariffs while imposing reciprocity tariffs on countries with important trade ties to the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Judo Bank's aihuaforex.comprehensive purchasing managers index rose slightly from 50.6 in February to 51.3 in March, data from Australia on Monday showed. This data highlights the expansion of private sector economic activity slightly faster than last month.

Basic Forex Market Market:

After four consecutive days of decline, the Australian dollar/USD gained traction and rose to 0.6300 in early European trading on Monday.

BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida told the Japanese parliament on Monday that if the economic and price outlook were to be realized, they would adjust the extent of monetary easing by raising policy interest rates. Meanwhile, Japan JibunBank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers IndexFrom 49 in February to 48.3 in March, the service industry purchasing managers index fell from 53.7 to 49.5. These data show that both industries have fallen into contraction zones. The dollar/yen rose slightly early on Monday, with the last trading price around 149.70, despite selling pressure.

Euro/USD revised up to 1.0850 after falling more than 0.5% last week, starting the European session on Monday.

The GBP/USD recorded a decline on Thursday and Friday, with little change from last week. The pair held a slight daily gain, just below 1.2950 in early Monday. Later that day, Bank of England President Andrew Bailey will speak at the "British Economic Growth" lecture held at the University of Leicester, UK.

Bulle market fundamentals:

Following a record rebound in the first half of last week, gold turned down and closed down on Thursday and Friday. After closing above $3,000, gold/USD appears to have entered a consolidation phase of around $3,020 on Monday.

Analysis of major currency trends:

Euro: The intraday bias of the euro/dollar is still slightly downward. The correction from the short-term top of 1.0953 will extend to the 38.2% retracement level of 1.0726 from 1.0358 to 1.0953. You should see strong support levels to bring a rebound. On the plus side, breaking through 1.0953 will resume the rebound from 1.0176 to the key resistance level 1.1274.

Pound: The intraday bias of pound/dollar is currently maintaining a moderate downward trend. The correction from 1.3013 will be expanded to 1.2248 to 1.3013 with a 38.2% retracement level of 1.2721. A strong support should be seen to bring a rebound. On the bright side, breaking through 1.3013 will resume rebounding from 1.2099.

JPY: USD/JPY rose slightly today, but the overall outlook remained unchanged. Intraday deviations remain neutral first. The rebound from 146.52 is seen as a correction. If the rise is stronger, the upward space should be limited by the 150.92 support turning resistance level. On the downside, breaking through the 148.17 support will first retest 146.52. The 61.8% retracement level of 146.32, which continues below 139.57 to 158.86, will resume the decline from 158.86 to 139.57 support.

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