The US dollar index fluctuated downward, and Trump retaliated that there would be no recession at all!

On March 12, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 103.48. On Tuesday, the US dollar index fluctuated downward to its lowest level since mid-October last year, and finally closed down 0.511% to 103.39. U.S. Treasury yields hit a five-month low and rebounded, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.285%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.951%. As the weakening of the dollar and the tariff war sparked concerns about the economic slowdown, spot gold rebounded, regaining the $2,920 mark for a time, and finally closed up 0.97% to $2,915.32 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 2.67% to $32.98 per ounce. The pressure on the dollar has also benefited international oil prices, but concerns about the demand outlook still limit the gains. WTI crude oil rebounded after hitting the 65 mark during the session, and finally closed up 1.02% to $66.28/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.92% to $69.64/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 103.48. The National Federation of Independent Enterprises (NFIB) Business Optimism Index in February was underperformed at 100.7, down from the previous 102.8. Interest rates will almost certainly remain unchanged at the March 19 meeting, while the likelihood of a rate cut in May rose sharply, according to the FedWatch of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below support level 103.20–103.40square. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next support level, which is in the range of 102.00–102.20.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0909. The euro/dollar fell on Tuesday to close at 1.0919, down 0.05%. Euro/USD buyers found the accelerator pedal on Tuesday, further supporting Fiber and sending the pair back to the 1.0950 level, albeit at a short time. The pair tested a 22-week high as euro bulls continued to further enter the recovery zone. Technically, if the EUR/USD successfully closes above resistance level 1.0920–1.0935, it will move to the next resistance level 1.1030–1.1050.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2937. The pound/dollar fell on Tuesday to close at 1.2935, down 0.11%. US data remains the focus of GBP/USD traders. The UK economic data on this week's data list is still extremely limited, but key U.S. data will be released one after another for most of the week. The U.S. JOLTS job opening data is stronger than expected, providing some stability for the turbulent market. Job releases rose to 7.74M in January, surpassing the forecast 7.63M and above the revised figure in December of 7.51M, and adjusted from the previous 7.6M. The technically successful test of resistance level 1.2935–1.2950 will push GBP/USD toward the next resistance level 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading on Wednesday, gold trading was around 2911.96. Gold rose on Tuesday as the trade war stimulated demand for gold due to its risk-averse attraction. Optimistic U.S. employment data are ignored by traders, who continue to hoard money prices. Market sentiment has improved recently as Canada and the United States eased the threat of tariffs. Worries about a slowdown in the U.S. economy put downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which is a positive factor in gold prices.

Technical: From a technical perspective, gold continues to be on the rise, but buyers need to clear the peak that hit the March 7 high of $2,930 last week so that buyers can challenge the psychological barrier. The latter will hit an all-time high of $2,954,Then there is the $3,000 mark. Conversely, if gold falls below $2900, the next support will be $2850, followed by a February 28 low of $2832. Next is $2,800.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was close to 66.23. Oil prices rose slightly as weaker dollar boosted sentiment, but concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth have limited gains. As crude oil prices tend to be synchronized with the stock market trend, market sentiment remains sluggish: the S&P 500 index recorded its biggest single-day decline since December 18 last year, warming up risk aversion sentiment in the market. The Nasdaq aihuaforex.composite Index fell 4.0%, the largest single-day decline since September 2022, and market risk appetite decreased significantly.

Technical: Crude oil is trying to rebound from its monthly lows, although traders are cautious in the trade war. From a technical point of view, WTI crude oil needs to fall back above $67.50 to have a chance to gain a sustainable upward momentum in the short term.

Forex market trading reminder on March 12, 2025

①Pending OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report

②Pending G7 Group holds a foreign ministers' meeting

③Pending US steel and aluminum tariffs take effect

④16:45 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde delivered a speech

⑤20:30 US February unseasoned CPI annual rate

⑥20:30 US February seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate

⑦20:30 US February seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate

⑧20:30 US February seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate

⑧20:30 US February seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate

⑨21:45 Bank of Canada announced interest rate resolution

>⑩22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the United States to March 7th week

22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the United States to March 7th week

22:30 EIA strategic oil reserve inventories in the United States to March 7th week

The next day 01:00 US to March 12th 10-year Treasury bond auction-winning interest rate

The next day 01:00 US to March 12th 10-year Treasury bond auction-tender multiple

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