Ukraine and the United States will hold talks in Saudi Arabia this week, and the inflow of safe-haven funds will boost gold prices

Basic news

On Monday (March 10, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 2913.68, gold prices rose weekly last week, helped by the inflow of safe-haven funds, and the U.S. employment report showed that job growth in February was lower than expected, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year; U.S. crude oil trading was around 66.60 US dollars per barrel, oil prices rose last Friday, but fell from intraday highs because U.S. President Trump threatened that if Russia cannot reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, sanctions will be imposed on it. Zelensky will visit Saudi Arabia this week, and Ukraine will hold talks on the 11th, which needs attention.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.52% to 42,801.72 points last Friday; the S&P 500 rose 0.55% to 5,770.20 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.70% to 18,196.22 points.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher last Friday, rebounding from early declines after Fed Chairman Powell said the economy was "good" but uncertainty in U.S. trade policy caused Wall Street to record its biggest single-week decline in months.

Powell said the Fed would not rush to cut interest rates and reiterated concerns about President Trump's policy. Last week, the uncertainty of Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports caused turmoil. The S&P 500 index hit its biggest weekly decline since September. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for the third consecutive week, setting the longest consecutive decline since mid-July and early August last year.

Powell said the Fed will be cautious about easing monetary policyAttitude, adding that the economy is "still in good shape".

Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group, said, "Powell expressed the feelings of the rest of us: While the adjustments made by the government are likely to work and improve the country's fiscal situation, the pace and capriciousness of this change are hard to predict and to make plans based on it. Therefore, the best way to do this is to wait and see."

The stock market fell in volatile trading early in the trading session, but rebounded after Powell's speech. The three major stock indexes closed down this week, with the Nasdaq confirming a 10% decline from its all-time high hit in December on the previous trading day.

Utilities, energy, technology and industry sectors have the highest gains among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500. The consumer goods, finance and consumer essentials sectors are the biggest drag.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 3.1%, the Nasdaq fell 3.45%, and the Dow fell 2.37%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 3.86%. Data earlier on Friday showed that U.S. job growth in February rebounded from last month. However, the recent dismissal of thousands of federal workers is not reflected in the data.

Unemployment rose to 4.1%, heightening concerns about economic resilience. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs lowered their economic growth expectations. "It's a growth panic, from a non-landing environment to a soft landing environment, and it's the feeling that's unpleasant. It involves a string of unpleasant economic data, the main driver of weak consumer spending."

On Thursday, Trump proposed a one-month tariff exemption for Canadian and Mexican goods covered by the US-Mexico Agreement. Peer-to-peer trade barriers and other tariffs are expected to take effect in the aihuaforex.coming weeks.

Broadcom rose 8.6% after the chip maker released strong second-quarter results expectations, alleviating investors' concerns about demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Gold market

Gold prices fell last Friday, but rose weekly, helped by safe-haven inflows, and U.S. jobs reports showed job growth in February lower than expected, suggesting the Fed is expected to cut interest rates this year. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,906.04 per ounce. Gold rose about 1.7% last week as uncertainty aggravated by President Donald Trump's immobilization of tariffs. U.S. gold futures closed down 0.4% at $2,914.10.

The U.S. dollar index fell to a four-month low and will hit its biggest weekly decline since November 2022, making gold priced in USD cheaper for foreign buyers.

Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "Without expectations, data brings some to gold," said Bob Haberkorn.Xu boosted, and the weakening of the dollar also helped. ”

The U.S. Department of Labor report shows that 151,000 new jobs were added in February, with economists surveyed by Reuters previously expected an increase of 160,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and a 4% expectation.

Feder Chairman Powell said earlier on Friday that the Fed would be cautious about easing monetary policy, adding that the economy is "still in good shape". Although gold is an inflation hedge, rising interest rates could weaken non-feeds The attractiveness of gold.

The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts starting in June, with a cumulative cut of 76 basis points for the rest of the year.

Spot silver fell 0.8% to $32.35 per ounce; platinum fell 0.6% to $960.70 per ounce; palladium rose 0.4% to $946.15 per ounce.

Oil market

Oil prices rose last Friday, but fell from intraday highs as the United States President Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $70.36 a barrel, up 1.3%. U.S. crude oil futures closed at $67.04 a barrel, up 1.02%.

Trump posted on TruthSocial website that he "strongly considered" sanctions on Russian banks and imposed tariffs on Russian products as the Russian armed forces The team continued to launch an attack in Ukraine. Brent crude once jumped to $71.40, while U.S. crude futures hit $68.22, after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak told reporters that OPEC+ Group of oil producers will increase production in April, but may consider other measures including production cuts. "If you don't like the current oil prices, wait a minute," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup. "

The oil market trend was only affected by OPEC+ and possible Russian sanctions issues, putting other news, including Israel and Hamas delaying their pursuit of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, put aside.

Last week, Brent crude fell 3.8%, the biggest single-week decline since the week of November 11. U.S. crude fell 3.9%, the biggest single-week decline since the week of January 21. Brent crude fell to its lowest since December 2021 last Wednesday, after rising U.S. crude inventories, O PEC+ announced a decision to increase production quota.

In other supply news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent said the U.S. goal is to lower Iran's crude oil exports to extremely low levels.

Reuters reported on Thursday that the Trump administration is considering a plan to inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea and continues to work to lower Iranian oil exports to zero.

Foreign market

The dollar hit against the euro and yen last FridayThe lowest monthly rate, also fell against most other currencies, with data showing that the U.S. labor market slowed in February, creating fewer than expected jobs.

The report suggests that the Fed will still cut interest rates multiple times this year. According to calculations by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), U.S. interest rate futures are expected to cut interest rates by 78 basis points this year, or about three cuts, at 25 basis points each time. The first rate cut may be in June.

Feder Chairman Powell’s speech at the University of Chicago Business School did not really say anything new, repeating his statements during Congress testimony and at a press conference after the Fed’s interest rate resolution in January. Powell said last Friday that the Fed did not need to rush interest rate cuts and would wait for further clarity to the economic impact of Trump's new administration's policies.

The euro continued to climb against the dollar, up 4.5% last week, which would mark its best weekly performance in 16 years, helped by Germany to implement fiscal reforms. After the employment data was released, the euro hit a four-month high of $1.0888 against the dollar. The euro ended at $1.0845, up 0.6%.

The US dollar remained flat against the Japanese yen at 147.99 yen, after falling to a five-month low of 146.94 yen. After the US non-farm employment report was released, the US dollar continued to decline. Data shows that non-agricultural jobs increased by 151,000 in February, and the number of revisions in January was 125,000. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected 160,000 jobs to increase in February, with a previous reading of 143,000.

The US dollar index fell 3.5% last week, marking its worst single-week performance since November 2022. Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.4% to 103.81, after falling to its lowest level since early November.

Natalia Lojevsky, managing director of CIFCAssetManagement, believes: "The weaker average hourly wage may be a relief for the Fed, which is still evaluating the inflationary pressures caused by uncertain trade and tariff policies in the labor market and the wider economy." The average hourly wage increase in February slowed to 0.3% from 0.5% in January.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said last Friday that the U.S. economy may slow down as the U.S. economy transitions from public spending to more private spending, saying it is the "detoxification period" needed to reach a more sustainable balance.

Federal Chairman Powell said last Friday that the one-time price jump caused by tariffs does not require a response from monetary policy.

The US dollar rose 0.4% against the Canadian dollar to 1.4362 CAD but fell against the Mexican peso to 20.259 PH.

International News

Zelensky is about to visit Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and the United States will hold talks on the 11th

Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on social media on the 8th that he is about to start his visit to Saudi Arabia. He will hold a bilateral meeting with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohamed bin Salman on the 10thOn the 11th, a Ukrainian delegation aihuaforex.composed of senior officials such as the Director of the General Office of the Ukrainian President, Foreign Minister, and Defense Minister will stay in Saudi Arabia to hold consultations with the US delegation. Zelensky stressed that Ukraine is fully aihuaforex.committed to a constructive dialogue and looks forward to discussing and reaching agreement on the necessary decisions and steps. Ukraine has been seeking peace since the first second of the outbreak of the war. The realistic plan has been placed on the negotiating table. The key is to take action quickly and effectively.

More than 600 tons of gold have flowed into the United States since December last year

According to recent reports by many foreign media, the latest data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that in January this year, Australia's total gold exports to the United States reached 4.6 billion Australian dollars (about 20.98 billion yuan), which is the highest level since relevant records. According to the World Gold Council, since December, the United States has transported more than 600 tons of gold into U.S. vaults from other countries. At present, the US gold reserves have reached 8133.46 tons, the highest in the world. In addition, data from the World Gold Council showed that in January this year, global central banks net gold purchases were 18 tons. Among them, emerging market central banks are still the main force in net gold purchases.

The German Alliance Party and the Social Democratic Party tested the financial plan for the formation of the cabinet by other parties

The Alliance Party, which ranked first and third in the German Bundestag election, aihuaforex.completed tentative negotiations on the joint formation of the cabinet on the 8th, and announced the key policy position documents agreed by the two sides, moving towards the formation of a new "big alliance" government. However, the above policy documents have been violently criticized by other parties, especially policies regarding lifting debt restrictions and increasing military spending and social security spending. Since the vote for major proposals is passed, other parties need support, the current differences may indicate that the next government will face obstacles in advancing policies.

The United States has not yet extended its immunity to purchase electricity from Iran

The United States has reportedly not renewed an immunity to allow Iraq to purchase electricity from Iran as one of the measures to put economic pressure on Tehran. The report quoted an unnamed U.S. State Department spokesman as saying that the decision ensures that Iran will not receive "any degree of economic or financial relief" as U.S. President Trump is still maintaining a "limited pressure" policy on the country. Trump said he had written to the Iranian leadership urging the country to start negotiations. Iran's supreme leader Khamenei said that as long as the United States continues to maintain its "extreme pressure" policy, Iran will refuse to negotiate.

Investment banks cut the ECB rate cuts expected

In the aihuaforex.coming week, investors will continue to think about the impact of Germany's large-scale fiscal stimulus plan and the impact of Germany's plan to increase defense spending. Germany's large-scale fiscal stimulus plan has led to a sharp rise in German government bond yields. Special feelings for investorsInterested in how fiscal expansion will affect economic growth and inflation in Europe, and how this will affect the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Vanguard and Alliance Bernstein have already expected the ECB to cut interest rates by less than 2.50% this week. Vanguard is currently expected to cut interest rates only once this year, while AllianceBernstein's forecast for the ECB's policy rate correction at the end of 2025 is 2%, higher than the previous estimate of 1.75%.

The Democratic leadership of the U.S. House of Representatives opposes the Republican government spending bill

On March 8 local time, members of the Democratic leadership of the U.S. House of Representatives said on the same day that they planned to vote against the House of Representatives Republican spending plan released earlier that day, saying the plan "wanderingly cuts" U.S. spending projects. According to reports, Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Whip Catherine Clark and Democratic Caucasian Chairman Pete Aguilar said in a joint statement that the Republican House of Representatives' party funding bill "wanderingly cuts health care, nutrition assistance and $23 billion in veterans' benefits."

The US side says that Iran may face military actions without negotiations

U.S. President Trump recently urged Iran to negotiate with the United States on the nuclear issue, otherwise he may face military actions. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei responded on March 8 that some countries would impose their wishes on Iran, and Iran would never accept them. In response to the latest statement from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, spokesman for the US White House National Security Council Brian Hughes reiterated on the 8th local time that Iran can choose to reach an agreement through negotiations, otherwise Iran may face US military actions.

Domestic News

Minister of Human Resources and Social Security: This year, the level of pension insurance benefits will be steadily improved.

Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, Wang Xiaoping, said at the press conference on the people's livelihood theme of the Third Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 9 that the level of pension insurance benefits will be steadily improved this year. Based on last year, the minimum standard for basic pension for urban and rural residents this year increased by another 20 yuan per month, and this increase in benefits involved 180 million elderly residents in urban and rural areas. At the same time, the basic pension for retirees is appropriately increased, with a focus on middle- and low-income groups. This increase in benefits involves more than 140 million retirees. The human resources and social security department will carefully calculate to ensure timely and accurate distribution.

Wang Xiaoping, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security: Research on incorporating more new employment forms into the social security system for enterprise employees

Wang Xiaoping, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, said at the press conference on the people's livelihood theme of the Third Session of the 14th National People's Congress that the social security policies of key groups will be improved. To adapt to changes in employment methods, study and improve the insurance and payment methods, include more flexible employment personnel, migrant workers and other new employment forms in the enterprise employees' social security system, and enjoy a higher level of protection.

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