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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Ava Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: EU exports to the United States have increased significantly, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 23". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market conditions
The three major stock index futures rose collectively, Dow futures rose 1.76%, S&P 500 futures rose 2.37%, and Nasdaq futures rose 2.76%. The German DAX index rose 2.45%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 1.30%, the French CAC40 index rose 2.12%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 2.32%.
2. Market news interpretation
EU exports to the United States increased significantly
⑴ In February 2025, EU exports to the United States increased by 22.4% year-on-year to 51.8 billion euros, setting a record high growth rate in 13 months.
⑵ During the same period, EU imports from the United States increased by 2.4% year-on-year to 28.2 billion euros.
⑶On February 13, US President Trump asked his economic team to develop a reciprocal tariff plan for all countries taxing the United States.
⑷ Although Trump has repeatedly threatened trade sanctions since returning to the White House in January, many measures have been postponed.
⑸ In February 2025, the overall EU trade surplus was 23 billion euros, while in January it was a deficit of 5.6 billion euros.
⑹In 2024, EU exports to the United States increased by 5.5% year-on-year, while imports from the United States fell by 4.0%.
U.S. mortgage rates rose to two-month highs, and the number of applications dropped sharply
⑴ According to data from the American Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the United States rose to 6.9 in the week ending April 18, 2025.%, up from 6.81% the previous week, the highest level in about two months, synchronized with the rise in bond yields.
⑵The interest rate rises in part because President Trump once again criticized Fed Chairman Powell.
⑶ During the same period, the number of mortgage applications in the United States fell by 12.7% aihuaforex.compared with the previous week, the largest decline since October of the previous year, continuing the downward trend of 8.5% in the previous week.
⑷This decline is related to the sell-off of long-term Treasury bonds and asset-backed securities after the United States imposed tariffs on major trading partners, resulting in an increase in benchmark mortgage interest rates.
⑸ The amount of refinancing applications is more sensitive to short-term changes in interest rates, down 20% that week.
⑹ Despite signs of increased inventory of new homes, mortgage applications for home purchases fell by 7%.
UK natural gas prices remained near the nearly six-month low
⑴ UK natural gas futures prices are close to 85p per heat unit, close to the six-month low of 82p that hit on April 8.
⑵British natural gas prices have been curbed due to lower demand and increased inventory in Europe's neighbors.
⑶ The rising temperatures in the UK and North Sea areas have reduced the demand for gas-intensive heating, especially in the late April.
⑷ The increase in the arrival of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the Dutch Gas Trading Centre has enabled European utilities to start restocking after the winter, reducing supply uncertainty over the rest of the year and alleviating price pressures for UK gas.
⑸ At the same time, macroeconomic uncertainty and the risks of falling trade flows and worsening aihuaforex.commercial expectations continue to exert bearish pressure on natural gas prices.
South Africa's inflation rate in March fell to a five-year low, and the room for interest rate cuts may expand
⑴ South Africa's annual inflation rate in March fell to its lowest level in five years for the first time since June 2020, mainly due to the decline in fuel costs and the slowdown in tuition increases.
⑵South African Statistics Bureau data showed that consumer inflation fell to 2.7% in March from 3.2% in February, lower than the 2.9% expected by Reuters survey and below the Bank of South Africa’s target range of 3% to 6%.
⑶ Fuel index fell 8.8% month-on-month, and tuition fees surveyed in March rose 4.5%, down from 6.4% last year.
⑷ Independent economist Elize Kruger believes that the latest inflation data provides room for the central bank to cut interest rates at the May monetary policy meeting to ease the impact of global trade conflicts on the economy.
⑸ The Bank of South Africa kept its key interest rates unchanged in March, after three consecutive cuts on interest rates due to concerns about US tariff policies and domestic budget disputes.
⑹Standard Bank ElnaMoolman pointed out that weakness in the residential rental market has also helped curb inflationary pressures, but global tariffs and depreciation of the local currency may still limit the central bank's interest rate cuts.
Europe's business growth stagnated in April, and PMI data highlighted trade pressure
⑴Europe's business growth stagnated in April, the survey shows that uncertainty in U.S. trade policy has dealt a major blow to economic sentiment, although it has not yet affected output significantly.
⑵ The dominant service industry activity in the euro zone and the UK has contracted, and the long-term downturn in manufacturing continues, and the German private sector has contracted due to service industry difficulties and trade uncertainty.
⑶ The euro zone aihuaforex.comprehensive purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 50.1 from 50.9 in March, lower than the 50.3 expected by Reuters survey and only slightly above the dividing line between growth and contraction by 50.
⑷ The euro zone service industry PMI fell from 51.0 to 49.7, lower than the expected 50.5, and the service industry optimism index fell to its lowest level since the peak of the epidemic in mid-2020.
⑸ France's economic activity contracted intensified due to a sharp decline in the service industry, British aihuaforex.companies faced pressure due to the escalation of global trade conflicts, and manufacturing PMI fell to a 20-month low of 44.0.
⑹Although the eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to a 27-month high of 48.7, aihuaforex.companies reported orders aihuaforex.completed ahead of schedule, and output could be hit even more in the aihuaforex.coming months.
⑺Overall demand fell, enterprises cut their employees again, and the aihuaforex.comprehensive employment index fell to 49.9 from 50.4 in March.
UK economic activity slowed down significantly, with PMI data hitting a record low for many years
⑴ Data released on April 23 showed that the UK's aihuaforex.comprehensive PMI fell to 48.2 in April, lower than 51.5 in March, the lowest level since November 2022.
⑵ The manufacturing PMI fell from 44.9 to 44.0, a 20-month low, and the service PMI fell from 52.5 to 48.9, a 27-month low.
⑶ Intensified global trade tensions, causing British corporate export orders to fall at the fastest pace since the early stages of the epidemic in 2020, while corporate costs rose rapidly due to increased employment taxes and increased minimum wages.
⑷ Despite the appearance of inflation signals, a sharp decline in economic activity further consolidates market expectations for the Bank of England to cut interest rates next month.
⑸S&P global chief economist said that the UK economy is currently shrinking at a rate of about 0.3% per quarter, and the economic outlook is under tremendous pressure.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market
Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1413, a drop of 0.08%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after reaching oversold levels, the euro-dollar price rose on the last trading day, supported by its stability at the EMA50 support. In addition, there were positive signals from (RSI), but the price remained stable below the 1.1475 level, affected by the negative rising wedge pattern.
British Pound/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD is belowIt fell, now at 1.3300, down 0.23%. Before New York, GBPUSD rose in recent intraday trading after yesterday's decline, trying to find a rising bottom as a basis that could help it get the positive momentum it needs to recover from support relying on EMA50 in the last trade, creating positive pressure to drive the price rebound to restore early losses to a slight gain.
Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3316.30, a drop of 1.91%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, relying on its EMA50 support after the gold price reached the target $3,290 we recommended in the last technical report, which provided positive impetus to help it rebound higher in the last trading day, dominate the main bullish trend in the short term, and starts to form a positive divergence after reaching the oversold level (RSI), exaggerating aihuaforex.compared to the beginning of current price movements and positive signals.
Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 32.787, an increase of 0.93%. Before New York, silver prices rose in the last intraday trading, supported by trade above the EMA50 and accompanied by positive signals on (RSI) to attack the stubborn key resistance of $32.90, with short-term bullish correction trends dominating.
Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 63.280, a drop of 0.61%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices remained stable on the last trading day, supported by positive signals on the (RSI), although they reached overbought levels dominated by short-term bullish correction trends.
4. Institutional View
Mitsubishi UFE: The market loses confidence in US assets Eurozone bonds may benefit
Halpenny, head of global market research at Mitsubishi UFE Financial Group, said that investors lose confidence in US assets and eurozone government bonds may benefit from it. Halpenny said German Treasury bonds have always performed better than U.S. Treasury bonds, while the yield gap between French Treasury bonds and German Treasury bonds is relatively stable.
JPMorgan Chase: If US tariffs damage global economy, the British pound will weaken
JPMorgan Chase analysts said in a report that if US tariffs damage global economy, the UKPounds may weaken. They say a aihuaforex.common view from investors is that in a tariff-focused market, the UK economy relies more on the service sector and exports less to the U.S. goods, and the pound should benefit from it. Plus, the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on the UK is much lower than the one imposed on other economies. However, the spillover effect of global tariff policies on the UK economy and the lack of fiscal wiggle room in the UK means that the pound will suffer instead. Analysts expect the pound to go as it is due to a potential UK-US trade deal. aihuaforex.comStrongness may be short-lived, as this appears to be reflected in the price.
The above content is about "[Ava Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: EU exports to the United States have increased significantly, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 23" was carefully aihuaforex.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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