Wonderful Introduction:
A person's happiness may be false, and a group of people's happiness cannot tell whether it is true or false. They squandered their youth and wished they could burn it all, and that posture was like a carnival before the end of the world.
Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
In the foreign exchange market, various news is like a weather vane, always affecting investors' decisions and market trends. On March 12, 2025, many positive and negative news were intertwined, which had a significant impact on the foreign exchange market.
1. Good news
(I) The RMB exchange rate rebounded strongly
On March 11, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose sharply, with a maximum rebound of more than 300 basis points, and both recovered the 7.24 yuan mark. As of 20:40, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.2314 yuan, up 335 basis points from the previous trading day, with the highest in the trading day of 7.2233 yuan; the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.2333 yuan, up 300 basis points from the previous closing price, and the highest intraday was 7.2268 yuan. Looking back on the long run, since March, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has maintained an overall rise. Since March, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has risen by more than 0.7%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has risen by more than 0.8%. The market's concerns about the US economic recession have intensified, US Treasury yields have plummeted overnight and US stocks have fallen sharply, while the RMB mid-price is still strong, and the Chinese stock market has also shown resilience, which has helped the RMB market strengthen. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Financial Cheng, said that against the backdrop of a sharp depreciation of the US dollar and a basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate exchange rates have risen steadily against the US dollar recently. "The risk of US dollar fluctuations increases in the short term, and the RMB may still have some room for appreciation."
(II) my country's cross-border fundsStable flow
According to the website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, my country's cross-border capital flows have become more stable, and domestic foreign exchange supply and demand are basically balanced. In August, the cross-border income and expenditure surplus of non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals was US$15.3 billion; at the same time, the pace of domestic entities' foreign exchange purchases declined, the demand for foreign exchange settlement steadily increased, and the difference in foreign exchange settlement and sales of banks tended to be balanced. my country's foreign trade development trend continued to improve, with the net inflow of cross-border funds under the trade of goods in August increasing by 11% month-on-month; overseas institutions continued to net increase in holdings of domestic bonds, and foreign capital's willingness to allocate RMB assets remained stable. In the future, my country's foreign exchange market will continue to maintain a stable operation. From an internal perspective, positive factors and favorable conditions in my country's economic operation continue to accumulate, and the economic recovery and positive trend will continue to consolidate and strengthen. From an external perspective, as the monetary policies of developed economies such as Europe and the United States enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, the international financial market environment is expected to further improve.
(III) Reforms in the foreign exchange field release dividends
At the 2025 National Foreign Exchange Management Work Conference ended in Beijing, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will anchor the key tasks in 2025 to establish and improve the "more convenient, more open and safer" foreign exchange management system and mechanism. In 2024, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange accelerated the launch of a series of facilitation measures, such as the expansion of three cross-border investment and financing facilitation pilot projects, and the cross-border financing facilitation policies benefited 1.3 million high-tech and "specialized and innovative" enterprises across the country; the administrative license for registration of foreign trade enterprises was cancelled, and the special foreign exchange withdrawals were relaxed from registration standards, etc. After the policy optimization, the number of administrative license transactions under the current account decreased by about 90% year-on-year. In 2025, the reform of foreign exchange facilitation will continue to increase efforts, including more technology-based enterprises in the pilot program of cross-border financing facilitation, and promote the optimization and expansion of trade facilitation policies. This series of reform measures will help enhance market vitality and promote the healthy development of the foreign exchange market.
2. Negative news
(I) The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is under pressure, and the policy has aroused concerns from enterprises. On February 17, the Indonesian government issued a new regulation requiring natural resource exporters to retain all foreign exchange income in Indonesia for at least one year. The policy will take effect on March 1. The move aims to increase foreign exchange reserves and stabilize the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. It is expected to increase Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves by US$80 billion in 2025, and potential returns within 12 months will exceed US$100 billion. However, data showed that the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar fell below the 16,400 US dollar mark in February this year, the lowest level since June last year. Indonesian business aihuaforex.community expressed concerns about the new regulations, Bloomberg quoted the opinions of the Indonesian Mining Association and the Palm Oil Association, pointing out that aihuaforex.companies are facing tight funds under the current regulations, and the new policy may force exporters to borrow money to maintain operations, thereby pushing up operating capital costs. The instability of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and the business pressure caused by policies have had a certain negative impact on the foreign exchange market sentiment in Southeast Asia. (II) Economic data aroused market concerns about the prospects of some currencies
The U.S. Department of Labor released data on March 7 to showIt showed that the number of non-farm jobs in the United States increased by 151,000 in February, lower than the market expectations of 160,000; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the previous value was 4%. This data has caused market concerns about the momentum of US economic growth, which in turn affects the performance of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market. Although the Associated Press believes that given the relatively stable job growth and the current economic situation, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in March is unlikely, the lack of economic data will still shake investors' confidence in the US dollar. For other currency pairs, such as the euro against the US dollar, the pound against the US dollar, etc., changes in US economic data will affect their relative strength and weakness. If investors' concerns about the US economic outlook intensify, they may increase buying of non-US currencies and change the long and short pattern of existing currency pairs.
The foreign exchange market is affected by many factors, and investors need to pay close attention to these positive and negative news and aihuaforex.comprehensively analyze the market situation in order to make reasonable investment decisions.
The above content is all about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Collection of Positive and Negative News that Influences the Foreign Exchange Market". It was carefully aihuaforex.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Foreign Exchange Editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
In fact, responsibility is not helpless, it is not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created a better life for us today. I will try my best to organize the article.