US dollar bulls try to regain the initiative, short-term support appears, pay attention to CPI data guidance

Aihua Foreign Exchange APP News-On Wednesday (March 12), the US dollar index (DXY) was quoted at 103.5008, up 0.05% during the day, and was sorted around the 103.5 line. Judging from the recent trend, the US dollar has stabilized after continuous decline. Although the market risk aversion sentiment has eased, the US dollar was under pressure during the trading session yesterday. However, with the implementation of the latest US tariff policy, the market reassesses its impact on the economy. Trump's tariff remarks have once again attracted market attention. Although some policies have been adjusted, overall trade protection measures still put pressure on market sentiment. Although market uncertainty about trade policy remains, historical experience shows that the US dollar often exhibits resilience during the trade friction stage, especially when market sentiment has not yet fully digested the relevant impact. At the same time, the U.S. Congress has promoted fiscal budget legislation to avoid the government's shutdown and has also alleviated market concerns about short-term liquidity to a certain extent. However, the market is still waiting for final legislative progress, and if the Senate fails to reach a consensus quickly, safe-haven funds may flow back to the US dollar. Another major market focus is the upcoming February CPI data. Analysts at well-known institutions pointed out that the main obstacle to the Fed's interest rate cut is still the failure to fully decline in inflation. The current market generally expects the core CPI monthly rate to be 0.3%. If the data meets expectations or is higher than market expectations, it may strengthen the rebound momentum of the US dollar. In contrast, if the data is weaker than expected and the market may re-bet that the Fed initiates interest rate cuts earlier, the dollar may face adjustment pressure. Technical detailsAnalysis: The US dollar index is aihuaforex.compiled in the short term, paying attention to the technical aspects of the upward breakthrough: 103.5 is the key watershed From a technical perspective, the performance of the US dollar index around 103.5 is worth paying attention to. The US dollar closed lower yesterday, but it began to rebound overnight, showing that bulls were trying to regain the initiative. Although the intraday increase was limited, the volatile consolidation pattern showed that the market was digesting the previous selling pressure. From the daily level, 103.5 is not only a psychological barrier in the near future, but also a dense intersection area for short-term moving averages. If we can stand firm in this level within the day and break through 103.7 (near last week's high), bulls' confidence is expected to further increase, and the next target may point to the 104 integer mark. On the contrary, if it is blocked and falls back, the range of 103.2-103.3 will provide preliminary support, and breaking down may test the strong support level near 102.8. From a broader perspective, the US dollar index has maintained a high fluctuation pattern since the end of last year, and the overall trend has not turned to short positions. Although it is under pressure due to the decline in tariff speech and risk appetite in the short term, its downside space seems to be limited. The RSI indicator is currently hovering around 50, and there are no overbought or oversold signals, indicating that the market momentum is relatively balanced. aihuaforex.combined with trading volume observation, the selling pressure has weakened in the past two days, suggesting that the bear power is declining. If the CPI data is relatively strong today and the trading volume is amplified, the US dollar index may usher in a technical rebound. Analysts' opinion: The US dollar rebound window has been opened by some well-known institutions

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