Trump's White House Summit "scare" the market! Trump said some tariffs may be raised after April 2

On March 10, during the Asian market on Monday, the US dollar index hovered around 103.65.

U.S. employment data in February and President Powell's speech after the closing of the market in Europe put an end to the busy week. The former shows that U.S. employment has increased by 151k, more or less consistent with the expected 160k. It was slightly lowered by 18k in January. The aihuaforex.commodity industry increased by 34k and the service industry increased by 106k, led by the health and social sectors (63k) and finance (21k), offset by the leisure and hospitality industry (-16k) and temporary help (-6k). DOGE's jobs are beginning to appear in federal government departments, which have laid off 10k jobs. This is the biggest monthly decline since July 2022. The information brought by the household survey is slightly different, and the employment rate actually drops. This helps explain why the unemployment rate (calculated from this survey) unexpectedly rose from 4% to 4.1%, while the labor force participation rate also declined (62.4%). Hourly wage growth rose from the expected 0.3%/m to 4%. The data for January was slightly lowered. We think today's report is good and is close to expectations anyway.

This makes the market reaction more telling. The market holds a moderate view and reveals continued sensitivity to weak economic data. We believe that the elves released by President Trump's chaotic policies and the fear triggered by DOGE will be difficult to put back into the bottle. U.S. Treasury yields continued their previous declines, changing by -4 to -7 basis points per day at some point, and then with the addition of U.S. investors, the yields fell back to pre-employment levels again. The dollar fell on the same day.But most of the decline occurred before the employment data was released. DXY is close to November's correction low (103.37) However, the EUR/USD does try the first shy attempt at 1.09 shortly after its release, but it lacks strong enough momentum. Later today, Powell seized the last chance to speak before the lockdown period began before the March 19 Fed meeting, which gave another chance. Then, another interest rate status is almost certain. But in the past few weeks, the market has dramatically changed the schedule: from the first new round of interest rate cuts in mid-September to full pricing in June, and today’s 50% rate cut in May. Emphasizing weaker than expected economic data in the near term and/or focusing on downside risks in growth may prompt more radical bets. Next week will bring some final information from the March FOMC meeting, with JOLTS job openings announced on Tuesday, CPI data released on Wednesday, and highly-watched consumer confidence indicators will be released on Friday. On the tariffs, Wednesday was a big day, with March 12 as the deadline for the U.S. to impose 25% steel and aluminum tariffs on the EU. The ECB and its Observers meeting began on the same day. Friday is another deadline for the United States. Legislators need to reach a spending agreement to avoid a federal shutdown.

Asian market

Japan's labor cash income increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January, lower than market expectations of 3.2%. Nominal wage growth remained positive for the 37th consecutive month.

Inflation-adjusted real wages fell -1.8% year-on-year, reversing a slight increase in two months. The decline is mainly due to a sharp rise in consumer inflation.

The inflation rate used by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare to calculate real wages (including fresh food prices but not rents) accelerated to 4.7% year-on-year, the highest level since January 2023.

Normal or basic wages increased by 3.1% year-on-year, the largest increase since 1992. This was overshadowed by a 3.7% year-on-year drop in special payments, which are mainly aihuaforex.composed of one-time bonuses.

The China Consumer Inflation Index released over the weekend fell to the negative area for the first time in more than a year, with CPI falling 0.7% year-on-year in February, weaker than expected -0.5%, a sharp reversal from the year-on-year increase of aihuaforex.com0.5% year-on-year.

The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, also fell -0.1% year-on-year, the first decline since January 2021, indicating potential weak demand.

Moon-monthly, the consumer price index fell -0.2%, higher than expected -0.1%, partially reversing the 0.7% gain in January.

While this decline may raise concerns about deflationary pressure, the NBS attributes much of the decline to the Lunar New YearTime-related seasonal distortion. Excluding this factor, the National Bureau of Statistics estimates that the CPI actually rose by 0.1% year-on-year.

In view of these distortions, a clearer picture of China's inflation trajectory may appear in March as seasonal effects subside.

At the same time, producer prices continued to shrink for the 29th consecutive month, with PPU falling -2.2% year-on-year, slightly better than -2.3% in January, but still lower than expected -2.1%.

European Market

Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy aihuaforex.committee, believes that recent monetary policy actions have been overshadowed by the "international spillover effect." Fluctuations in the financial market, especially the fluctuations in cross-border shocks, have disrupted traditional policy signals, making "the basic premise of gradual monetary policy no longer effective."

Mann said larger rate cuts, such as the 50 basis points she supported at the last Bank of England meeting, would better "survive this turmoil" and provide clearer guidance to the economy.

She believes that a more decisive policy stance will help guide inflation expectations and stabilize economic conditions rather than let uncertainty linger with smaller incremental fluctuations.

Despite her position, the Bank of England chose a smaller 25 basis points rate cut in its latest decision, with Mann and dove Swati Dhingra defeated by 7-2 votes.

U.S. market

The Canadian labor market stagnated in February, with employment rising only 1.1k, well below the expected 17.8k growth.

The unemployment rate stabilized at 6.6%, better than expected by 6.7%, while the labor force participation rate dropped from 65.5% to 65.3%, the first decline since September 2024. Total working hours have shrunk significantly, down -1.3% month-on-month.

Within the weak employment data, wage growth accelerated, with average hourly wages rising 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.5% in January.

The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 151k in February, slightly lower than the expected 156k, basically consistent with the 12-month average of 168k.

The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.0% to 4.1%. Since May 2024, the unemployment rate has remained within the narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2%. The labor force participation rate fell from 62.6% to 62.4%.

Average hourly wages increased by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations, while the average weekly working hours remained unchanged at 34.1 hours.

The above content is all about "[Ava Avatrade official website]: Trump's White House summit "scareed" the market!, Trump said that some tariffs may be raised after April 2" was carefully aihuaforex.compiled and edited by the Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for the support!

After doing something, there will always be experience and lessons. For convenienceIn future work, we must analyze, study, summarize and concentrate the experience and lessons of previous work, and raise it to the theoretical level to understand it.