EU officials to submit key drug bills, short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 11

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major stock index futures rose, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks rising by 0.19%; S&P 500 futures rose by 0.25%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks rose by 0.34%. European stock markets rose, with the German DAX index rising 0.53%; the French CAC40 index rising 0.19%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.23%.

2. Market news interpretation

EU officials will submit a key drug bill

It is reported that Europe has a plan to avoid drug shortages - to produce more drugs and link contracts to the drug supply. EU Health aihuaforex.commissioner Olivier Valhri and European aihuaforex.commission Executive Vice President Theresa Rivera will present the Key Drugs Bill in the European Parliament on Tuesday afternoon, which will create plans for drug procurement, drug production subsidies and the establishment of new global partnerships to avoid supply dependence. Europe is heavily dependent on the supply of medicines and ingredients in India and other places, especially cheap generic drugs.

Greenland's "most important election in history" is underway

Greenland residents are currently voting in parliamentary elections, and issues regarding their future relations with Denmark and the United States have cast a shadow on the election. Trump has repeatedly claimed to "acquire" Greenland and will use military and economic power if necessary, which has attracted global attention.

Optimism in small American businesses weakens, concerns about economic slowdown intensify

①Independent American businessesThe NFIB said Tuesday that the small business optimism index fell 2.1 points to 100.7 in February, below the 101.0 forecast by economists. ② The index reached a recent high of 105.1 in December 2024, when aihuaforex.companies had high hopes for new President Trump's business-friendly policy. ③ However, the NFIB uncertainty index rose to the second highest on record in February, showing concerns among aihuaforex.companies about the economic outlook. ④ The net proportion of small business owners who are expected to improve economic conditions in the next six months fell by 10 percentage points, and the proportion of small business owners who believe that it is a good time to expand has hit the largest monthly decline since April 2020. ⑤ At the same time, the net proportion of aihuaforex.companies that raised their average sales prices in February hit the largest monthly increase since April 2021.

U.S. and European credit investors are becoming more cautious

①EdmonddeRothschildGroup report points out that credit investors in the United States and Europe are becoming more cautious due to intensifying interest rate volatility due to trade policy uncertainty. ②Analysts of the group said that the market is worried that economic growth may be affected, and the credit spread of the United States has expanded significantly, while the euro credit spread is relatively stable. ③ Interest rate fluctuations have led to a decrease in the issuance of new bonds, and the secondary market transaction performance is uneven. ④ London Stock Exchange Group data shows that the US currency market has fully digested the Fed's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market had previously expected interest rate cuts to September or later.

Baiaihuaforex.comRyder reduces his holdings of euro zone bonds

①BlackRock Investment Research Institute’s position on reducing euro zone government bonds is expected to maintain a relatively high level. ② TuanHuynh of BlackRock Investment Institute pointed out in the report that the strengthening of US tariff remarks and European fiscal stimulus measures have consolidated expectations that benchmark interest rates are higher than pre-epidemic levels. ③The interim chief investment strategist who studies Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Eastern Europe said that this expectation is the main reason why BlackRock reduced its holdings in euro zone bonds. ④ According to data, the yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond rose by 4.4 basis points, and the latest was 2.860%.

U.S. economic concerns trigger market turmoil. Euro and yen options trading is popular among macro funds.

In coping with market turmoil caused by US economic concerns, macro hedge funds are increasingly seeking foreign exchange options trading that excludes the US dollar. Trading involving the euro and safe-haven yen on Monday was sought after. On the same day, US technology stocks hit the biggest drop since 2022, and these two currencies easily became the currencies with the largest trading volume of American Depository and Settlement Corporation (DTCC), accounting for more than half of the market. Morgan Stanley strategists Zoe Strauss, David Adams and others wrote in a Monday report that options data showed euro long positions were at 2The highest level since 2020. The euro rose sharply after German Chancellor-elect Merz promised to loosen fiscal spending.

The US military leased oil tanker collided with a freighter in the North Sea waters or caused an environmental disaster

The US military leased oil tanker "Stanner Perfect" collided violently with the Portuguese-flagged container freighter in the North Sea waters of northeast England in the morning of the 10th, causing fire, causing multiple explosions. The former carries about 220,000 barrels of aviation fuel, while the latter carries highly toxic chemicals. The outside world is worried that the accident may cause environmental disaster. According to British media reports such as The Times, the accident occurred at around 9:45 on the 10th, and the sea area where the incident occurred was densely filled with fog. The 140-meter-long "Good aihuaforex.come" was heading south at the highway. When he saw the anchored 183-meter-long "Stanner Perfect", the two ships were less than one kilometer apart. The violent impact pushed the "Stanner Perfect" away for nearly 200 meters. A few minutes later, the two ships caught fire and exploded several times. Some crew members abandoned the boat and escaped, and black smoke was seen rolling on the scene. At the time of the incident, there were 14 people on the "Good Me" and 23 on the "Stanner Perfect". According to AFP, the fire on the ship has not yet been extinguished 12 hours after the incident.

U.S. stocks are a flashing warning light, with a market value of $1.7 trillion evaporated.

U.S. stock market value evaporated $1.7 trillion after US President Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a recession this year. The market plunges, Trump's repeated tariffs have disturbed investors and raised concerns that the economy could slow down sharply or, in the worst case, a recession. New York Stock Exchange trader Peter Tachman described Monday's trade as a "blood swamp". "We had a roller coaster last week, with ups and downs, all of which were the result of decisions made by the president's office, totally undecisive, chaotic and mixed information, and the investment aihuaforex.community lost confidence in the whole situation." Democratic Senator Warren said: "We were in real economic hardship because of the president (policy). Now, the stock market is a flashing warning light."

Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation intends to list its international investment department overseas

Abu Dhabi National Oil Corporation (ADNOC) considers listing its international investment department XRG overseas (IPO) within 5 years, with the listing options mainly in London or New York. Bank of America is providing strategic consultation to ADNOC. According to the report, XRG is valued at more than US$80 billion and if it is listed, it may become one of the largest energy IPOs in the world. People familiar with the matter said that promoting XRG overseas listing is ADNOC's established goal and is also in line with its strategies to strengthen global layout and reduce dependence on oil business. Founded at the end of 2024, XRG is an investment aihuaforex.company under ADNOC focusing on low-carbon energy and chemistry. Its board of directors gathers many well-known people, including former BP CEO Looney, Blackstone President Gray, Egyptian billionaire Nassef Sawiris, etc.

February UKRetail sales in China have increased slightly, supported by growth in the food sector

① A new report released by the British Retailers Association and KPMG shows that despite the boost of Valentine's Day sales, UK store sales only achieved moderate growth in February, and consumers with tight budgets are reluctant to make large expenditures. Overall retail sales in the UK rose 1.1% year-on-year in the four weeks ended March 1. By aihuaforex.comparison, the average increase of 2.4% in three months and an average increase of 0.8% in 12 months, the British Retailers Association said on Tuesday. The driving force behind the growth came from the food sector, with food sales growing by 2.3%, while non-food sales remained flat year-on-year;

② Although sales growth in non-food categories was sluggish, Valentine's Day helped boost sales of jewelry, watches and perfumes. However, due to bad weather and poor fashion performance, said Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retailers Association. Looking ahead, she said retailers expect a sunny March to support spring and summer fashion sales; Linda Ellett, head of UK consumer, retail and leisure business at KPMG, said shoppers are delaying large purchases amid a time when the economic outlook is under pressure to consumer confidence. However, various events and offers are still trying to attract shoppers. "Valentine's Day, for example, boosted jewelry sales on the streets, otherwise it would be a month when in-store purchases remained flat," Ellett said.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:22 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.0908, an increase of 0.68%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro-USD price rebounded significantly upward, exceeding the $1.0900 mark and stabilized above that mark, strengthening expectations of continuing bullish trends in the aihuaforex.coming trading days, and the road to achieving the $1.0975 target we are waiting for is open.

GBP/USD: As of 20:22 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.2932, an increase of 0.42%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, GBPUSD price trading was significantly positive, trying to break through the $1.2925 level, which supported expectations of continued bullish trends in the day, and the price needed to confirm a breakthrough to strengthen the opportunity to start from $1.3000 and extend to $1.3130.

Spot gold: As of 20:22 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 2911.21, an increase of 0.76%. Before the New York market, gold prices traded with clear enthusiasm to break through $2900.00 and tried to activate the positive scenario again as it gained positive motivation from the stochastic indicators, which supported the realization of the upcoming trading.More opportunities for rise.

Spot silver: As of 20:22 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 32.457, an increase of 1.17%. Before New York, silver prices rebounded upward to surpass EMA50 and strengthened expectations of rising for the rest of the day, and the road to achieving our first major goal of $32.86 was open, noting that the stochastic indicators provide positive signals to support opportunities for more gains in the upcoming trading.

Crude oil market: As of 20:22 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 66.850, an increase of 1.24%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices traded significantly positively and may test the key resistance of $67.05, as we mentioned this morning, prices need to be kept below this level to keep the bear trend effective, as breaking through this level will result in additional gains from the price to $69.25.

4. Institutional View

Renne: EU Economic Challenges and Inflation Prospects

① Renne, President of the Finnish Central Bank, pointed out that EU countries still need to increase defense investment when facing huge public deficits, which puts double pressure on the economy.

②Ren mentioned that the Finnish central bank estimated that US tariff remarks may lead to a reduction of more than 0.5% this year and next year, highlighting the uncertainty of the external economic environment.

③ Nevertheless, Rennes said that the core inflation forecasts and indicators of the euro system show that inflation will be consistent with the 2% target, showing a certain degree of economic resilience.

JPMorgan Chase: Raises the chance of a U.S. recession to 40%.

Economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan Chase have raised the risk of the U.S. recession this year from 30% at the beginning of 2025 to 40%. "We believe that the U.S. is in a recession this year is very risky," analysts wrote. Earlier news that Morgan Stanley economists cut U.S. economic growth expectations and raised inflation expectations last week. The bank predicts that the U.S. GDP growth rate will be only 1.5% in 2025 and will drop to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists also raised the probability of a 12-month recession from 15% to 20%.

The above content is about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: EU officials will submit key drug bills, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on March 11" is carefully aihuaforex.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Foreign Exchange Editor. I hope it will be for you.The transaction helps! Thanks for the support!

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