As expectations for a recession in the United States heat up, Trump is finally willing to trade negotiations!

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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The expectations of the US recession heat up, and Trump is finally willing to trade negotiations!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows: On April 8, market participants continued to assess the latest developments in the global trade conflict caused by tariffs by US President Donald Trump. The NFIB March Business Optimism Index will be the only noteworthy data release in the U.S. economic calendar on Tuesday.

The market turned to risk aversion early this week as Trump and other U.S. officials reiterated their willingness to maintain tariffs. National Economic aihuaforex.commission (NEC) director Kevin Hassett said in an interview with FoxNews on Monday that Trump is redoubled his efforts and he knows it works, adding that Trump will listen to trading partners if they offer "really great deals." Later in the day, several news media, including Reuters, reported that Hassett told CNBC that Trump was considering suspending tariffs for all countries except China for 90 days. However, the positive impact of the title on risk sentiment remains short-lived, as the White House issued a statement calling CNBC’s coverage “fake news.”

Meanwhile, Trump threatened on social media to impose an additional 50% tariff on China after China imposed a 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods on Friday. In response, "If the United States insists on fighting a trade war, China will fight to the end," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday.

Basic foreign exchange market trends:

Despite the fluctuations between China and the United States, U.S. stock index futures rose decisively in early European trading on Tuesday.It indicates that risk sentiment has improved, while the USD index remains in the negative area around 103.00.

Euro/USD held its daily gain around 1.0950 in the early European session after almost no change at the close of Monday. EU Trade aihuaforex.commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Monday that they have provided zero-to-zero tariffs on automobiles and all industrial products to the United States.

GBP/USD fell more than 1% on Monday and hit a month's lowest level around 1.2720. The pair corrected higher on Tuesday, trading slightly above 1.2750.

NZD/USD fell more than 3% last Friday and continued to fall on Monday. After falling to around 0.5500, the pair reversed its direction after falling to around 0.5600, the pair last traded around 0.5600, up 1.2% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce monetary policy decisions during the early trading session of the Asian session on Wednesday.

The US dollar/JPY rose more than 0.5% on Monday, but failed to maintain bullish momentum. As of press time, the pair fell 0.5% to 147.10 on the day. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that they will continue to push the U.S. to review tariff policies, noting that he is considering visiting the U.S. in due time to have a direct dialogue with Trump.

Market fundamentals:

In terms of aihuaforex.commodities, gold rose 0.4% to $2,995, but is still far below the historical peak of $3,167.57 that was immediately hit last Thursday after Trump announced the "Liberation Day" tariffs.

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.5% to $65.16 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose 1.6% to $61.65 a barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends:

Euro: Euro/USD is still hovering in the consolidation below 1.1145, and the intraday bias remains neutral. The downward space of the retracement should be curbed by the 38.2% retracement level of 1.0775 from 1.0176 to 1.1145 to bring about a rebound. On the plus side, above 1.1145 will resume the rebound from 1.0176 to 1.1213/74 key resistance zone.

GBP: The intraday bias of GBP/USD is still on the downward trend as the decline from the short-term high of 1.3206 continues. The 38.2% retracement level 1.2783, which continues to be below 1.2099 to 1.3206, will aim at the 61.8% retracement level 1.2522. On the plus side, a small resistance above 1.2933 will first turn the intraday bias into neutral.

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY intradayThe bias remains neutral, and more consolidation will appear above 144.54. The upward space for recovery should be limited below the 151.28 resistance level. On the downside, below 144.54 will resume the decline from 158.86 and aim at the 61.8% forecast of 158.86 to 146.52, from 151.20 to 143.57. A breakout above this level will aim at the low of 139.57.

The above content is about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The expectations of the US recession heat up, and Trump is finally willing to trade negotiations!" is carefully aihuaforex.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Foreign Exchange Editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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