Risk sentiment improved at the beginning of this week, with the dollar falling gold hitting a high

State sentiment improved early this week as investors evaluated the latest headlines surrounding the U.S.-China trade conflict. Monday's economic calendar will not release any data that has a greater impact. Several Fed policymakers will speak during U.S. trading hours.

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has allowed some technology imports, including smartphones, aihuaforex.computers, laptops and optical drives, to exempt China from the high reciprocity tariffs imposed. The products will be reportedly subject to current tariffs of 20% on China, which are related to the U.S. fentanyl crisis and are excluded from an additional 125%. However, U.S. aihuaforex.commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an interview with ABC News on Sunday that the products, as well as semiconductors, will face separate new taxes in the next two months. After this development, U.S. stock index futures rose decisively in early European trading on Monday. As of press time, Nasdaq Futures rose 1.7% on the day.

The USD (USD) index, which tracks the performance of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, fell about 3% last week, hitting its lowest level since April 2022 around 99.00. After a technical correction over the weekend, the U.S. dollar index struggled to hold its position on Monday and remained in a negative area below 99.30.

Basic foreign exchange market trends:

Data from China show that China's trade surplus narrowed from US$170.51 billion in February to US$102.64 billion in March. On a year-on-year basis, exports rose 13.5% in March, while imports fell 4.3%. After rising more than 4% in the previous week, the Australian dollar/USD continued to rise, with the latest increase of about 0.65% to 0.6330 on the day.

GBP/USD benefited from continued selling pressure around the US dollar and traded above 1.3150 in early European trading. The Office of National Statistics will release employment data for February on Tuesday.

After falling more than 2% last week, the USD/JPY continues to be under bearish pressure and trades around 142.50 to start the European session. Earlier in the day, data from Japan showed that industrial production rose 2.3% month-on-month in February, lower than market expectations of 2.5%.

Euro/USD rose more than 3.5% last week and traded in the positive zone around 1.1400 in early trading. The European Statistics Office will release industrial production data for February on Tuesday.

Market fundamentals:

aihuaforex.commodity market, global uncertainty proved to be an unexpected surprise for gold prices, with gold soaring to an all-time high of $3,245 on Monday.

Oil prices have been under greater pressure due to concerns about a global economic slowdown and increased OPEC supply, although Iran's possible cessation of exports has provided some support for oil prices. Brent crude fell 17 cents to $64.5 per barrel, while U.S. crude fell 15 cents to $61.35 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies trends:

Euro: Euro/USD continued to rise last week and accelerated to a high of 1.1427. Initial biases remained upward this week, forecasting 161.8% of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 to 1.1694. On the downside, a secondary support level below 1.1245 will turn intraday bias into neutral and lead to consolidation. But the downside space should be controlled above the 1.0912 support level to bring another rebound.

Pound: The intraday bias of GBP/USD is still at the upward resistance level of 1.3206. A resolute breakthrough will resume a rebound from 1.2099 and retest the 1.3433 high. On the downside, the secondary support level below 1.2981 will first make the intraday bias neutral again. But as long as the 1.2706 support level is held, the overall near-term outlook will remain bullish.

Yen: The intraday bias of the US dollar/yen is still on a downward trend. It is currently down from 158.86 to 139.57 support. On the plus side, a small resistance above 144.18 will first make the intraday bias neutral. But as long as the 151.20 resistance is held, the outlook will remain bearish in case of a rebound.

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