The Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged, and short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 20

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major stock index futures fell, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks falling 0.02%; S&P 500 futures falling 0.04%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks falling 0.07%. European stock markets fell, with the German DAX index falling 1.83%; the French CAC40 index falling 1.04%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.35%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged. The economic downturn and external uncertainty continue to cause trouble.

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, consistent with the Federal Reserve's actions on Wednesday. Later this year, it is still possible that it will cut interest rates at a greater rate than the Fed. Like the Fed, the Bank of England expects inflation to continue to slow in the aihuaforex.coming months, but it wants to ensure inflation is on track and avoid reducing borrowing costs too quickly. However, the UK economy has always been much weaker than the US. After being flat in the third quarter last year, the UK economy grew only 0.1% in the fourth quarter, barely avoiding a recession. Data released last week showed that GDP fell again in January. Part of the problem is caused by global concerns about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and President Trump’s tariff policies, but the British economy also has its own problems. The Stamer-led administration has been working to restore consumer and business confidence in the prospects. Fearing that the market may react adversely to the massive spending plan, the government announced a series of tax increases to help pay for social services, but did not make a big push to stimulate economic growth.

The Canadian SME confidence index plummeted to a record low.The US-Canada trade conflict intensifies

① The long-term index of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) plummeted 24.8 points to 25.0 in March, a record low, lower than the level during the 2020 epidemic, the 2008 financial crisis or the 9/11 period. ②CFIB chief economist Simon Gaudreault said small business owners are pessimistic about the business outlook in the aihuaforex.coming months or even longer, and it is difficult to make key decisions in the long-term, medium-term or short-term as the situation changes rapidly. ③ Small businesses plan to raise prices on average by 3.7%, up from 3.0% in February, the largest monthly increase in price growth intentions since the pandemic. The average wage growth plan dropped to 1.9% from 2.2% last month. ④ The weakening of optimism among small businesses is also reflected in recruitment plans, with 19% of small businesses planning to lay off employees in the aihuaforex.coming months (up from 13% in February) and only 11% planning to recruit. ⑤The trend of insufficient demand has been rising since November 2024, reaching a record high of 59% in March, surpassing 53% during the epidemic period. ⑥ Confidence in all industries has declined, with the hotel industry (17.0), manufacturing industry (18.6), transportation industry (21.0) and agriculture (21.3) at the lowest levels. ⑦Gaudreault pointed out that confidence in all provinces has declined, with the three largest provinces being the most pessimistic: Ontario (23.4), Alberta (24.1) and Quebec (24.9). ⑧CFIB Executive Vice President of Advocacy Corinne Pohlmann said that business confidence is at an extremely low level, which should give a strong warning to policy makers that aihuaforex.companies urgently need help in dealing with the current dilemma, including improving Canada’s business environment.

The EU summit was held in Brussels to focus on EU aihuaforex.competitiveness

On March 20th local time, the EU summit was held in Brussels, Belgium. It is reported that the meeting will focus on the issue of EU aihuaforex.competitiveness, especially the European aihuaforex.commission's suggestions on increasing military spending, concentrating resources for joint defense projects and purchasing more European weapons. In addition, global issues such as immigration issues, the latest situation in the Middle East, and multilateralism have also been put on the agenda. UN Secretary-General Guterres was invited to attend a working lunch, and Ukrainian President Zelensky will deliver a speech via video link.

The ECB will investigate payment system interruptions

① ECB President Christina Lagarde said on Thursday that the ECB will hire a large auditing aihuaforex.company to investigate payment system interruptions last month. ②This event caused delays in some payment and financial transactions. ③Lagarde told European Parliamentarians at the hearing that the audit aihuaforex.company will investigate why it took a long time for central bank staff to find the problem and why the backup system was not activated immediately.

The potential impact of huge current account deficits in the United States on the US dollar

① The rapid growth of the current account deficit in the United States has beenIt becomes a major issue and may have an impact on the US dollar. ② The US current account deficit is expected to reach a record $325 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, and has almost tripled since the epidemic. During Trump's previous term, the deficit doubled from $85 billion to $190 billion. ③ The US dollar has appreciated more than 40% since 2011 due to the strong US dollar policy of the United States and its position as a global reserve currency, reaching a high of nearly two decades in January 2025. ④ The dollar's reserve currency status has allowed it to remain supported in other situations (such as the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the global financial crisis, the California banking crisis and the threat of government shutdowns caused by multiple differences in federal spending). ⑤ During Trump's previous term, he tried to verbally suppress the US dollar, but the US Treasury Department then reiterated its support for the strong US dollar policy, and the US dollar rebounded immediately. ⑥To some extent, the US dollar may be too strong and the expanding current account deficit needs to be resolved.

Norway's total oil and gas production exceeded expectations in February

Norway's Marine Authority (NOD) said on Thursday that Norway's total oil and gas production in February was 1.8% higher than the official forecast. Norway is Europe's largest natural gas supplier and major oil producer, but its output changes monthly due to maintenance demand and other shutdowns in more than 90 offshore fields. Data shows that Norway's total oil, condensate, liquefied natural gas and natural gas production in February was 663,000 standard cubic meters per day, equivalent to 4.17 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. Natural gas production in February fell to 355.1 million cubic meters per day from 360.4 million cubic meters per day in the same period last year, but was 3.8% higher than the forecast 342 million cubic meters per day. Crude oil production in February fell to 1.723 million barrels per day from 1.765 million barrels per day in the same period last year, but higher than expected 1.701 million barrels per day.

German industrial lobby calls for greater flexibility in gas reserves

German industry lobby calls for greater wiggle room in refilling gas storage facilities, saying it will help alleviate the industry's battle with high energy bills. Currently, both manufacturers and households have to pay a fee to cover the costs incurred by operators when inflating gas storage facilities, which was introduced to ensure supply safety after the energy crisis. According to a paper published by Boston Consulting, the BDI Industry Association said that "more flexible reserve filling requirements," or exemption from the tax, will help reduce industry costs. High energy prices are particularly worrying for manufacturers, with the industry experiencing a relentless downturn since the 2022 crisis. Since then, German families have also continued to pay higher fees.

The EU's 800 billion arms purchase plan. US arms dealers were excluded

According to a report on March 19, the European aihuaforex.commission announced the "European Defense White Paper" and "European Re-arming Plan/2030 aihuaforex.combat Readiness Plan" on the same day. US arms dealers were excluded from the EU's planned investment of more than 8,000Outside of the defense spending plan of 100 million euros. At present, British arms manufacturers have also been temporarily ruled out. Whether they will be included in the UK in the future will be decided until the EU-UK summit held in May.

Trump considers extending Chevron's operating license in Venezuela

According to the Wall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter said the Trump administration is considering a plan to extend Chevron's (CVX.N) license to exploit oil in Venezuela. Trump said Wednesday in a meeting with Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and other industry executives that he was willing to revoke a recent order from his administration to end its business in Venezuela by early April. Washington is also considering a plan to impose tariffs or impose other economic penalties on countries that buy oil from Venezuela. A Chevron spokesman said: "Chevron executives regularly meet with Washington government officials to engage in constructive exchanges on issues related to our business in the United States and overseas."

Trump plans to let the U.S. military take over the U.S.-Mexico border buffer zone to detain illegal immigrants

According to five U.S. officials, the Trump administration is evaluating a plan to allow the Department of Defense to take over a large buffer zone on the southern border and authorize active U.S. troops to temporarily detain immigrants who illegally enter the United States. Officials said the discussion had been going on for weeks, with partly focusing on a section of New Mexico’s border. Officials say the move would actually turn the buffer into a massive peripheral military facility while posing new legal dangers to illegal immigrants trying to enter the United States from Mexico. This will be the largest move to use active forces at the border since Trump came to power, but any move to militarize the southern border buffer will certainly raise questions about whether it violates the Posse aihuaforex.comitatus Act, which restricts the use of active forces to enforce the law. Officials say the 60-foot buffer controlled by the military could eventually extend westward to California if the plan is approved and government officials believe it is successful. It is reported that this buffer zone is located in the "Roosevelt Reserve", which was reserved for border security by former President Roosevelt in 1907. Typically, these areas are controlled by the Ministry of the Interior.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.0851, a drop of 0.47%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the Euro/USD exchange rate may continue to fluctuate and be strong in the short term. The Federal Reserve's policy orientation has put a certain pressure on the US dollar, providing momentum for the euro/dollar exchange rate, but the uncertainty of the euro zone's own economic data and the interference of geopolitical risks have limited the exchange rate increase.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell, and is now at 1.2968, a drop of 0.26%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the GBP/USD exchange rate may continue to fluctuate and be strong in the short term. The Federal Reserve's policy orientation has put a certain pressure on the US dollar, providing momentum for the pound/dollar exchange rate, but the uncertainty of the UK's own economic data and the interference of geopolitical risks have limited the exchange rate increase.

Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3035.42, a drop of 0.39%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and upward in the future. At the macroeconomic level, the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy and the uncertainty of the global economic growth prospects will continue to provide support for gold prices. The tension in the geopolitical situation will be difficult to alleviate in the short term, and safe-haven demand will continue to drive gold prices to rise.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 33.307, a drop of 1.37%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices are expected to continue to fluctuate upward at high levels in the future. At the macroeconomic level, the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy and the uncertainty of the global economic growth prospects will continue to provide support for silver prices. The tension in the geopolitical situation will be difficult to alleviate in the short term, and safe-haven demand will continue to drive the price of silver to rise.

Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 67.180, an increase of 0.40%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices are full of uncertainty in the future trendaihuaforex.com. At the macroeconomic level, the uncertainty of the global economic growth prospects and the fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates will continue to affect the supply, demand and prices of crude oil. The tension or easing of the geopolitical situation has a direct impact on crude oil supply and market sentiment.

4. Institutional view

Barclays: Preset tariff-related price pressure is temporary that may catch the Fed off guard against the evolution of the situation

Barclays economists said in a report, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome? Powell said the upward pressure on tariff-related prices would be "temporary", and this wording and his disregard for some of the inflation expectations could lead to the Fed's situationHua was caught off guard, just like during the COVID-19 pandemic. Powell made it clear on Wednesday that the aihuaforex.committee currently presets that the upward pressure on tariff-related prices will be temporary, but the Fed is taking a "waiting and watching" attitude as to whether the upward pressure on prices will move in this way. "His tone seems too confident," Barclays said. Barclays also said that Powell seemed reluctant to consider preparing for a rate cut in the future to provide a buffer for the economy in the event of a sharp deterioration of economic activity, which soft data indicators such as consumer confidence have already predicted. They added that downplaying such risks could hurt the Fed’s credibility, after all, the Fed appears to be taking a very narrow path with double risks at every step.

HSBC: The key to the US dollar lies in U.S. trade policy, not monetary policy

HSBC Global Research Economists say that the key to the US dollar trend may depend more on the evolution of U.S. trade policy rather than monetary policy. "For the dollar, the FOMC stance in March was neutral enough to challenge the widespread dollar bearish sentiment, especially as Treasury yields fell," they said in a report. But they said that this was not enough to prompt the dollar to continue selling. They said the Fed continued to wait and see after the Treasury starts this year, so there is reason to be a more cautious view on short-term yields and keep its expectations for the 10-year Treasury yield at the end of 2025, or 3.50%. These economists believe that U.S. stock markets may be cleared further, as some of the bank's indicators show oversold levels.

The above content is all about "[Ava Aihua Official Website]: The Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on March 20" was carefully aihuaforex.compiled and edited by the Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

Life in the present, don’t waste your current life in missing the past or looking forward to the future.