OPEC+ promotes production increase plan, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 3

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major stock index futures fell sharply, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks falling 2.72%; S&P 500 futures falling 3.37%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks falling 3.81%. European stock markets fell, with the German DAX index falling 1.86%; the French CAC40 index falling 2.31%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 1.39%.

2. Interpretation of market news

OPEC+ promotes production increase plan

①On April 3, OPEC+ ministerial negotiations have lasted for nearly two hours and are still continuing. ② Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman reiterate their aihuaforex.commitment to maintain market stability and increase production under the healthier oil market prospects. ③OPEC+ countries agreed to increase monthly output twice based on the originally planned May, and will hold a meeting on May 5 to determine the production level in June. ④The eight participating countries will implement a daily production adjustment of 411,000 barrels in May 2025, equivalent to a three-month increase.

Gold prices fell rapidly after hitting historical highs, while most analysts remained optimistic about gold

After Trump announced the full imposition of import tariffs, gold prices soared to a record high on Thursday, as some traders quickly fell back from profits, falling more than $80 from the day high, down 1.3% intraday. But most analysts are still optimistic about gold. Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, said: "Trade weaker, investment costs are rising andShrinking profit margins have seriously damaged the stock market, while geopolitical distrust is deepening. The outlook for economic growth is so bleak that it provides a perfect backdrop for further rise in gold prices. ANZ analysts said gold prices will approach $3,200 in the next six months.

Affected by federal government layoffs, planned layoffs rose by 60% in March

U.S. employers announced layoffs in March soared to the highest level since the pandemic triggered an economic recession as the government sacked federal staff and contract workers to cut spending. Job consultancy ChallengerGray said planned layoffs in March increased by 60% to 275,240, the highest level since May 2020, when the economy was hit by the first wave of the new crown epidemic. It was also the third highest monthly layoffs recorded. In the past two months, the aihuaforex.company tracked 27 Individual institutions plan to cut 280,253 federal staff and contract workers. Another 4,429 positions were cancelled due to cuts in federal aid or termination of contracts, mainly involving non-profit organizations and health departments. In addition to government departments, the number of planned layoffs in the technology and retail sectors has also increased significantly.

Oil loads in western Russia are expected to rise at western Russia's ports from April 1 to 8, reaching about 1.7 million barrels per day from the same period in March. ② Exports and transshipments of Ural, KEBCO and Siberian light crude oil in Primorsk, Ustluga and Novorossiysk ports will be 4 8 days in the first 2018 months increased by 6% per day aihuaforex.compared with the same period in March. ③ As the impact of domestic refinery maintenance season surpassed the production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement, daily oil exports from western Russia's ports are expected to increase by about 100,000 barrels per day from March levels to 1.97 million barrels per day. ④ However, some market participants still believe that due to the restoration of some refineries after drone attacks in February and March, more crude oil will be allocated to domestic refineries to cope with the peak season of gasoline demand, and Russia's oil exports in April may be lower than in March than in March. ⑤ According to Reuters' calculations based on LSEG and related data, Russia's total offline crude oil processing capacity in April may drop from 3.58 million tons in March to 2.137 million tons, a decrease of about 320,000 yuan. Barrel/day.

Stock cautious bets on the prospect of trade negotiations

①European stock markets fell only 2% after Trump announced economically painful tariffs, and Asian stocks fell less, and investors may think that U.S. trading partners can negotiate with the president. ② However, this takes time, meaning retaliation and market turmoil may be aihuaforex.coming. ③European aihuaforex.commission President von der Leyen said on April 3 that Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs are a major blow to the world economy, and the EU is ready to take countermeasures after the failed negotiations with Washington.

Russia's oil and gas revenue fell 17% year-on-year in March

①Russia's oil and gas revenue fell 17% year-on-year in March

①Russia's oil and gas revenue fell 11% year-on-year in March

7%, down to 1.1 trillion rubles (about 13 billion US dollars). ② In the first quarter of 2025, the revenue fell nearly 10% to 2.64 trillion rubles. ③ Oil and gas revenue has always been the main source of the Russian Federation's budget, accounting for one-third to half of the total budget revenue in the past decade.

Japan responds to Trump's tariff shock

① Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed his disappointment at the failure to obtain new US tariff exemptions and promised to take measures to help domestic industries cope with the impact of tariffs. ② Japanese officials question whether US tariffs aihuaforex.comply with the WTO agreement and the accuracy of US tariff calculations on Japan. ③After the tariff news was announced, the Nikkei index fell 2.77%, closing at an eight-month low, with its market value evaporating about US$127 billion. ④ Yamato Research estimates that the US imposing a 24% tariff on Japan may reduce Japan's real GDP this year by 0.6%. ⑤ Shigeru Ishiba emphasized that he would continue to urge the United States to re-examine tariff measures and consider direct dialogue with Trump. ⑥ The Japanese government plans to introduce support measures, including helping small businesses obtain loans supported by national aihuaforex.com. ⑦ Japanese Minister of Economic and Industry Ryoji Muto said that a task force has been established to analyze the impact of tariffs and will make the most favorable decisions cautiously and quickly.

Singapore distillate stocks fell to nearly 9 million barrels

①Singapore middle distillate stocks fell to nearly 9 million barrels, a two-month low, although net exports of diesel and aviation kerosene fell. ② In the week of April 2, diesel/light diesel and aviation kerosene/kerose in Singapore's key petroleum storage centers were 9.181 million barrels, a decrease from 10.219 million barrels the previous week. ③Net diesel/light diesel net exports fell by 73% week-on-month, and net exports of aviation kerosene/kerosene fell by 65%. ④ The total import volume fell slowly this week than the total export volume, and most of the imports came from Northeast Asia such as Taiwan and South Korea, which meets market expectations. ⑤In the next two weeks, about 100,000 tons or more of oil is expected to flow to Singapore in Northeast Asia, but inflows in the second half of April will depend on demand performance in other regions.

Trade protectionism impacts the global economy

① Trump's tariff remarks have caused market concerns. European Central Bank officials pointed out that the United States imposed tariffs on major trading partners seriously threatened global financial stability, drag down economic growth and increased inflation volatility. ② The EU has been imposed 20% tariffs, 24% in Japan, 25% in South Korea, and 32% in Taiwan. ③Governor of the German Central Bank Nager said that the United States' move is to launch an attack on prosperity, reduce growth and increase inflation, and the United States itself will be one of the many victims. ④ European Central Bank vice president De Kindos said trade tensions could weaken the euro, increase import costs, and increase defense spending would drive up overall demand and prices.

3. Major currency pairs before the New York Stock ExchangeTrend

Euro/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1085, an increase of 2.18%. Before New York, the euro/dollar surged in recent intraday trading and managed to break through the key resistance of $1.0945, which is dominant in the main uptrend after the price exited the downward correction price channel and started a new uptrend.

GBP/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, GBP/USD has risen, now at 1.3172, an increase of 1.30%. Before New York, the GBP/USD price rose in recent intraday trading, supported by the 50-candle SMA trading, with the main uptrend dominant in the short term as the price traded along the trend line and thus successfully broke through the key resistance of $1.3005.

Spot gold: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot gold fell and is now at 3090.31, a drop of 1.36%. Before New York, gold prices fell in recent intraday trading while trying to build up positive momentum and rebound again as prices trade along the secondary short-term trend line, so the main upward trend dominated.

Spot silver: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 32.255, a drop of 4.68%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices suffered heavy losses in recent intraday trading, and were hurt by the previous breakthrough of the upward short-term trend line. Negative pressure continued to exist due to trading below 50 candle SMA and the negative signals of the stochastic indicators.

Crude oil market: As of 20:18 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 67.300, a drop of 6.14%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, U.S. crude oil prices continued to fall in the latest intraday trading and exited the correction price channel that restricted recent short-term trading, while also breaking through the support of the 50 candlestick, doubled the negative pressure.

4. Institutional View

Dutch International: Japan and South Korea may negotiate tariffs rather than take retaliation

MinJooKang, an economist at the Dutch International Group, said that both Japan and South Korea will seek to lower Trump's reciprocal tariffs rather than seeking pointsDon't fight back on the 24% and 25% tariffs. She pointed out that the marginal impact of the new round of tariffs may be less than the 25% auto tariffs imposed separately, which are the largest category of exports from Japan and South Korea to the United States. She noted that the major exports of Japan and South Korea, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, were not affected, and the negative impact was expected to be more concentrated in the heavy industry and machinery industries. She added, “Neither country is likely to take retaliation,” and may make concessions through importing more U.S. products.

Barclays: Europe is on the brink of a recession hit by tariffs

Electricians at Barclays Bank warned that Europe is at risk of recession after Trump announced its tariffs. Barclays noted that these tariffs may be higher than expected, marking a new and obvious shift in protectionism in global trade. This has exacerbated the uncertainty and weak economic growth in the EU and the UK. "The United States announced tariffs on imported EU and UK goods...suppressed the economic outlook and put the eurozone economy and the UK at risk of recession in the second half of 2025".

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