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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Platform]: Trump suddenly made an important meeting, and the US dollar faces the biggest threat in half a century." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday, the US dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive trading day. However, affected by Trump's latest tariff news, the US dollar index has rebounded significantly from four months of lows. The euro narrowed its gains after the European Central Bank cut interest rates as scheduled, but suggested that the rate cut could be nearing its end.
The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, closed down 0.12% to 104.20 on Thursday. The dollar index has fallen for four consecutive days and fell to a four-month low of 103.76 at one point in the trading session.
The U.S. economic data released on Thursday was mixed, further showing signs of a slowdown. As of the week ending March 1, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell to 221,000 last week, with an estimated 233,000; the U.S. trade deficit in January widened to US$131.4 billion, with an estimated deficit of US$128.8 billion.
Global human resources aihuaforex.company Challenger, Gray & Christmas said that the total number of layoffs from 17 institutions in the U.S. federal government layoffs reached 62,242 in February, and the overall planned layoffs soared to 172,017, partly from the federal government's expansion of layoffs. The agency noted that this data has only appeared during the past two recessions.
Investors are currently concerned about the possible impact of the Trump administration on the U.S. economy, especially the uncertainty brought about by large-scale tariff policies.
Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structural products at Moneycorp, said: "The market's perception of tariffs has changed, and now they are seen as a barrier to economic growth. The market is beginning to realize that there are many U.S. aihuaforex.companies that rely heavily on import and export trade. If the overall trade count isAccording to the decline, this may not be a good thing for the US economy and may even lead to an economic slowdown. ”
However, after U.S. aihuaforex.commerce Secretary Lutnik confirmed that the U.S. suspended tariffs on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement to cover goods until April 2, the dollar decline converged.
Asian Market
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said earlier on Friday that the market had one-sided and fast volatility, adding that he would take appropriate action to prevent excessive foreign exchange volatility.
European Market
Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy aihuaforex.committee, believes that recent monetary policy actions have been overshadowed by an "international spillover effect." Fluctuations in financial markets, especially those of cross-border shocks, have disrupted The traditional policy signal made the “basic premise of monetary policy gradual progression no longer effective”.
Mann said larger rate cuts, such as the 50 basis points she supported at the last Bank of England meeting, would better “get through this turmoil” and provide clearer guidance to the economy.
She believes that a more decisive policy stance will help guide inflation expectations and stabilize economic conditions rather than let uncertainty linger with smaller incremental fluctuations.
Despite her position, the Bank of England chose a smaller 25 basis points cut in its latest decision, with Mann and dove member Swati Dhingra defeated by 7-2 votes.
Europe The central bank cut deposit rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% as expected. It maintains a data-dependent stance and emphasizes that it “will not aihuaforex.commit a specific interest rate path in advance” amid rising uncertainty.
The ECB noted that the deflation process is still underway, with inflation rising reflecting a stronger energy price. Growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were lowered in part due to trade and broader policy uncertainty.
Eurozone retail sales fell -0.3% month-on-month in January, below the moderate 0.1% growth forecast. The decline was due to weak non-food demand, which fell -0.7% month-on-month, while automobile fuel sales also fell - 0.3%. In contrast, food, beverage and tobacco spending increased by 0.6% month-on-month, slightly offsetting the overall decline.
At the same time, retail sales across the EU fell by -0.2% month-on-month. Among the EU, Slovakia had the largest contraction, with retail trade plunging -9.0%, followed by Lithuania (-4.8%) and Cyprus (-2.2%). Slovenia (+2.3%), Hungary (+2.2%) and the Netherlands (+1.6%) gained the most.
U.S. market
The number of first-time unemployment claims in the week ended March 1 fell by -21k to 221k, lower than expected 236k. Four-week shifts in the number of initial unemployment claimsThe dynamic average rose by 250 to 224k.
As of the week ended February 22, the number of people who renewed unemployment benefits rose by 42k to 1897k. The four-week moving average of the number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits rose by 3k to 1866k.
The Fed's Beige Book report shows that since mid-January, "economic activity has risen slightly", with mixed performances. Although 4 school districts showed moderate or moderate growth, 6 school districts reported no changes, and 2 school districts showed a slight contraction.
Consumer spending is generally low, with stable demand for essential goods, but discretionary spending is weakened, especially among low-income consumers. However, business expectations for the aihuaforex.coming months remain "slightly optimistic".
In terms of labor, employment generally has “slightly increased”, although wage growth has slowed slightly aihuaforex.compared to the previous report.
Although price pressure is still moderate, some regions have noticed accelerating growth, especially in manufacturing and construction industries. Many aihuaforex.companies are working to pass on higher input costs to customers, but expectations of import tariffs have prompted some industries to take the initiative to raise prices.
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