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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn Official Website]: The Trump team refuses to rule out recession! The market remains calm at the beginning of the large central bank week." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Major currency pairs fluctuated within familiar ranges ahead of the highly anticipated monetary policy announcements this week, which came from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In the second half of the day, the U.S. Economic Calendar will release the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for March and retail sales data for February.
After a sharp decline in the first week of March, the U.S. dollar index stabilized and ended last week with a small loss. Earlier Monday, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated slightly below 104.00. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were last seen falling between 0.5% and 0.7%, reflecting market caution. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated earlier Monday that he would impose reciprocal and industry tariffs on April 2, adding that they had no intention of exempting steel and aluminum tariffs.
Basic foreign exchange market trends:
Euro/USD rose slightly on Friday, after recording losses for two consecutive days. In early European trading on Monday, the pair fluctuated narrowly below 1.0900.
During the Asian trading session on Monday, data from China showed that retail sales increased by 4% year-on-year in February. This data was released after a 3.7% increase in January, in line with market expectations. During the same period, industrial production grew by 5.9%, exceeding market expectations of 5.3%. The AUD/USD remained stable on Monday, trading in a positive area above 0.6330.
U.S./Canadian dollars inFriday fell about 0.5% and ended last week in a nearly unchanging state. The pair maintained its consolidation phase above 1.4350 earlier on Monday. On Tuesday, the market will closely monitor Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February.
The GBP/USD fell slightly in the second half of last week, but managed to stabilize above 1.2900. The Bank of England is expected to announce on Thursday that it will not make any changes to its monetary policy settings.
The USD/JPY rose more than 0.5% on Friday and continued to move towards 149.00 at the opening of the week. The Bank of Japan will issue monetary policy decisions during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.
Bulle market fundamentals:
In other assets, gold hovered near all-time highs, with the latest trading at $2,990 per ounce. Last Friday, gold prices broke through the key $3,000 mark, and investors flocked to the safe-haven asset, triggering a historic surge.
Over the weekend, the US Secretary of Defense said that the United States will continue to launch attacks on Yemen's Houthi forces until it stops its attack on shipping. The remarks sparked concerns about supply disruptions, driving oil prices to rise sharply during Asian trading hours on Monday.
Brent crude oil futures and U.S. crude oil futures both rose more than 1% in early trading, but due to the prospect of the Ukrainian war aihuaforex.coming to an end, it is expected to bring more Russian energy supply back to the Western market, and oil prices then give up some of the gains.
Analysis of major currency trends:
Euro: The intraday bias of the euro/dollar remains neutral as the consolidation continues below 1.0946. If the decline is again, the downside should be curbed by the 38.2% retracement level of 1.0358 to 1.0946 at 1.0721 to achieve a rebound. On the plus side, breaking through 1.0946 will resume the rebound from 1.0176, retesting the key resistance level of 1.1274.
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