Oil prices remain stable during fluctuations, and the United States and Ukraine hold talks next week. The market is waiting for non-farm markets to come on

Basic news

On Friday (March 7, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 2912.82, gold prices fell on Thursday. Affected by rising U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking returns, the market's attention turned to Friday's non-farm employment data to understand the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trends; U.S. crude oil trading was around 66.25 USD/barrel, oil prices remained stable in fluctuating trading on Thursday, Brent crude oil closed below $70 per barrel, under pressure from the US tariff war and OPEC+ plans to increase production.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.99% to 42,579.08 on Thursday; the S&P 500 fell 1.78% to 5,738.52 points; and the Nasdaq fell 2.61% to 18,069.26 points.

Focus on China's trade data during the day. Germany's seasonally adjusted monthly industrial output rate in January, European Central Bank President Lagarde, Venezuel, Nott and Panetta delivered speeches, and Federal Reserve Director Bowman participated in a panel discussion on the report of the US Monetary Policy Forum organized by the University of Chicago Booth Business School. FOMC Permanent Voting aihuaforex.committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a speech, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech before the 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum Lunch at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq confirmed that it has been in a revised range since December, and the market is nervous about the uncertainty of current U.S. trade policy.

U.S. President Trump announced on Thursday that he would grant one month tariff exemptions for Mexican and Canadian products covered by the USMCA. The day before, he announcedGive auto products tariff exemptions. Trump mentioned only the exemption for Mexican goods earlier, but later signed an amendment to include Canada.

SiebertNXT Chief Investment Officer Mark Malek said: "Unfortunately, the fog of chaos is getting thicker and thicker. We have got a lot of conflicting information: tariffs have aihuaforex.come into effect, tariffs have been cancelled, some have been cancelled, and so on."

Of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, 10 closed down, with the consumer discretionary sectors, real estate sectors and technology sectors leading the decline. Only the energy sector rose.

The Nasdaq Index fell 10.4% from its closing level on December 16, confirming that it entered the revised range. The S&P 500 briefly fell below the 200-day moving average during the session, which is a technical support level that if it falls sharply, it may indicate a further decline.

The CBOE market volatility index, known as Wall Street's "Fear Index", closed up 2.94 points to 24.87 points, the highest closing level since December 18. "The uncertainty brought about by rapid policy statements will particularly hurt investment and hurt the economy, and another issue investors are concerned about is the scale of tariffs. This far exceeds the scale in 2018 and may trigger inflation."

Automotive maker General Motors fell 2.6%, while Ford also closed down 0.4%. Tesla fell 5.6%, and broker Baird listed the electric car maker as a "bearish new stock selection."

The performance of chip maker Marvell failed to impress investors, and its share price plummeted by nearly 20%. Other semiconductor manufacturers also fell, including Broadcom and Nvidia, dragging the wider chip stock index to plummet 4.5%.

The number of Americans who requested unemployment benefits last week fell more than expected. Investors will focus on more aihuaforex.comprehensive non-farm jobs data on Friday. According to data aihuaforex.compiled by LSEG, traders currently believe the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in June this year, with a 25 basis points margin.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank president Huck said the economy is in good shape at the moment, but there are signs that the consumer sector is under pressure and the inflation outlook is at risk, and trouble may be brewing.

Gold market

Gold prices fell Thursday, affected by rising U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking returns, while market attention turned to Friday's non-farm employment data to understand the Fed's monetary policy trends.

Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2915.83 per ounce, after rising in the previous three trading days. US gold futures closed at $2926.6, basically the same.

Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at KitcoMetals, said, "We're just seeing some pressure to take a slight profit from the recent rally, and fundamentals are still bullish," said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at KitcoMetals.One factor that puts slight pressure on the gold market is the rise in bond yields. "

Sets a new high in more than a week, reducing the attraction of non-interest-bearing gold. Heavy-haven gold has risen more than 10% so far this year and hit an all-time high of $2,956.15 on February 24.

The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada on Tuesday, though the White House confirmed Wednesday that it would exempt automakers from tariffs within a month, provided they must aihuaforex.comply with it. Adhere to existing free trade rules. All eyes are on the U.S. non-farm jobs report released on Friday, which economists surveyed by Reuters expect the report to show that jobs increased by 160,000 in February.

Spot silver rose 0.2% to $32.70 per ounce; palladium rose 0.4% to $946.58; platinum remained steady at $965.76.

Oil market

Oil prices were on Thursday Fluctuating trading remained stable, with global indicator Brent crude closing below $70 a barrel, under pressure from the U.S. tariff war and OPEC+ plan to increase production.

Brent futures closed up 0.2% to $69.46 a barrel. U.S. crude futures rose 0.1% to close at $66.36.

On Wednesday, Brent crude futures hit $68.33, the weakest since December 2021, in OPEC+ since 2021, in 2021. The first time since 2022 is raised, U.S. crude oil inventories have increased higher than expected after the U.S. tariffs on Tuesday, putting further pressure on crude oil.

The news of OPEC increasing production next month, coupled with the Russian and Ukraine's peace agreement now looks more promising, and the repeated tariff policies have made crude oil trading continue to be turbulent. "

Russia said it would seek to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine that would guarantee its own long-term security and would not back down from what it has achieved in the conflict.

U.S. President Trump exempted Canadian and Mexican goods on Thursday for a month under the North American trade agreement. Trump could lift 10% tariffs on imports of energy such as crude oil and gasoline that meet existing trade agreements.

At the same time, oil prices To boost, Treasury Secretary Besent said the U.S. would put the biggest sanctions on Iran, collapse its oil exports and put pressure on its currency.

Foreign exchange market

Hell-haven yen and Swiss franc rose in volatile trading on Thursday, the dollar fell sharply, Wall Street continued to be sold off, as the U.S.-launched trade war was hit hard by the escalating U.S. trade war, and nervous investors increasingly seek to avoid risks. Investors are now worried about the potential impact of the Trump administration's huge tariffs on the U.S. economy.

U.S. aihuaforex.commerce DepartmentChang Lutnik said earlier on Thursday that a one-month tariff suspension for automotive products for Mexico and Canada is likely to be extended to all products that aihuaforex.comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The US dollar narrowed its decline at one time.

Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structural products at Moneycorp, said: "People's perception of tariffs has changed, and tariffs are now seen as an obstacle to economic growth. The market is starting to see that there are a lot of U.S. aihuaforex.companies rely on imports and exports. If our trade numbers overall fall, this may be bad for the economy and the economy may slow down as a result." The yen and Swiss francs usually benefit when risk aversion is warming.

In afternoon trading, the dollar fell 0.9% against the yen to 147.65 yen, reaching a five-month low of 147.31 earlier. The US dollar hit a three-month low of 0.8828 Swiss francs against the Swiss franc at one point, down 0.9% at 0.8827 Swiss francs.

The US dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar, and it also softened against large emerging market currencies such as the Mexican peso, South African rand and Turkish lira.

The euro hit a four-month highest against the dollar after the ECB cut interest rates for the sixth time in nine months as expected, but raised its recent inflation expectations.

The euro rose to its highest level of $1.0854 since November, and then fell back to $1.0791, a small day. The euro has risen 4% so far this week, which is expected to hit its biggest weekly gain since March 2020.

The euro also benefits from Germany's increased spending, seeking huge special funds of €500 billion (US$540.9 billion) for infrastructure construction, and plans to increase defense investments subject to strict lending rules. Huge government spending may support economic growth overall, but may also exacerbate price pressures.

The ECB raised its inflation forecast for the eurozone this year to 2.3%, up from 2.1% forecast three months ago. The eurozone's long-term inflation indicator has risen from around 2.05% at the beginning of this week to 2.24% on Thursday, with an unusually large change.

One of the major concerns among investors is the impact of Germany's huge spending plan on the European Central Bank's monetary policy. European Central Bank President Lagarde said at a press conference after the interest rate resolution that the spending plan will boost European economic growth.

But she added that the ECB needs to be "careful, alert" and understand how it works. "What is the timing and how to raise funds so that we can draw conclusions... and what impact will it have on inflation in the end."

The US dollar index fell for four consecutive days, reaching its lowest for four months at one point. The US dollar index fell 0.3% at 104.12 at the end of the session.

The U.S. data on Thursday was mixed overall, providing more evidence for the slowdown. For example, global reemployment aihuaforex.company Challenger Gray & Christmas said the federal government announced in February that it had laid off 622,420 employees in 17 different agencies. 2U.S. employers announced layoffs of 172,017,000 employees in part due to federal layoffs.

The U.S. Department of aihuaforex.commerce Economic Analysis Bureau report shows that as aihuaforex.companies import ahead of tariffs, the trade deficit hit a record high in January. It suggests that trade may cause a drag on economic growth in the first quarter.

The US dollar fell 0.2% against the Canadian dollar to 1.4312 CAD. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said Thursday that the trade war between Canada and the United States will continue for the foreseeable future. Trudeau said Canada will continue to aihuaforex.communicate with senior Trump administration officials on tariffs and reiterated that his goal is to remove those tariffs.

International News

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March was 9%, and the probability of the interest rate cut in May rose to 49.2%. According to CME's "Feder Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 91%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 9%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by May is 50.8%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 45.3%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 4%.

Canada postponed taxes on US $125 billion worth of goods

Canadian Treasury Secretary said that Canada will postpone the second wave of tariffs on US $125 billion U.S. products to implementation until April 2.

U.S. officials say the United States and Ukraine plan to hold talks in Saudi Arabia next week

U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Witkov said on the 6th that Ukraine officials are discussing the arrangements for holding talks in Saudi Arabia next week, and the talks will discuss the framework of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and the realization of a preliminary ceasefire from Russia-Ukraine. Witkov told reporters outside the White House that day that the location of the US-Ukraine talks has been determined in Saudi Arabia, but the city is to be determined, and may be the capital Riyadh or Jeddah, the second largest city on the Red Sea coast. Witkov said he had a premonition that the U.S.-U.S. talks will achieve good results and will send a "positive signal" to Russia, because Russia has also shown a "positive" attitude in promoting negotiations aimed at ending conflicts and achieving peace.

Federal Governor Waller believes there will be no rate cut this month

Federal Governor Waller said at an event in New York that he does not think there will be a rate cut later this month, but said that two easing policies later this year remain the baseline situation. He said: "I want to see how the inflation data will be in February. Before deciding when to cut interest rates next time, I want to see how the tariff policy will be."

The new ECB wording reflects the hawks and doves reaching a aihuaforex.compromise. It is reported that the April meeting ushered in the showdown

People familiar with the matter revealed that ECB officials are preparing to negotiate further interest rate cuts or hold on to the April interest rate meeting. People familiar with the matter who asked to be anonymous for the undisclosed discussions said dovish policymakers currently believe the reason for the suspension is insufficient. But more hawkish officials tend to suspend rate cuts to study geopolitical risks and a sharp increase in European defense spending, the people saidThe impact of

People inside the matter: Trump is ready to finalize the Ukrainian mineral agreement with conditions

On March 6, local time, people familiar with the matter said that Ukrainian President Trump is ready to finalize the Ukrainian mineral agreement on the condition that the Ukrainian leaders agree to a feasible ceasefire and hold talks with Russia.

Domestic News

Experts expect the operational rhythm of lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut may be ahead

Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that monetary policy continues the tone of "moderate easing" and the operational rhythm of lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut may be ahead. Regarding the liquidity market, it is expected that the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Central Bank") will release medium- and long-term liquidity based on the buyout reverse repurchase. aihuaforex.combined with the financial side's efforts, the treasury bond buying operation may also be implemented at the right time with the subsequent rise in government bond supply.

I am optimistic about the frequent increase in foreign-funded insurance capital in the Chinese market

Since the beginning of 2025, many wholly foreign-funded insurance aihuaforex.companies have disclosed their shareholder capital increase plans, or may deeply integrate into my country's insurance industry through business mergers. Specifically, on February 5, the State Administration for Financial Supervision and Administration agreed to dissolve Anda Insurance Co., Ltd., and after the adjustment, Anda China's property insurance business will be merged into Huatai Property Insurance Co., Ltd. to achieve resource optimization and business coordination; on February 17, Zhongyi Property Insurance Co., Ltd. disclosed that its shareholder Zhongli Insurance Co., Ltd. plans to increase its capital by 40 million euros; on February 24, HSBC Insurance (Asia) Co., Ltd., the only shareholder of HSBC Life Insurance Co., Ltd., plans to increase its capital by 362 million yuan to HSBC Life Insurance Co., Ltd. The "2024 Annual Report on China Financial Reform and Opening-up" released by Ernst & Young (China) Enterprise Consulting Co., Ltd. shows that foreign banks and insurance institutions have further expanded their business scope in China, and many joint venture banks and insurance aihuaforex.companies have continued to increase their holdings. The asset scale and business income of foreign financial institutions in China have increased overall, and the assets of foreign insurance institutions in China have reached a historical peak at the end of 2024 and have continued to rise.

The above content is all about "[Ihua Foreign Exchange Platform]: Oil prices remain stable during fluctuations, the United States and Ukraine will hold talks next week, and the market is waiting for non-agricultural markets to aihuaforex.come on the market". It is carefully aihuaforex.compiled and edited by the Avatrade Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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