The Federal Reserve's top ranks suddenly change, and big news spreads when the Russian and Ukraine ceasefire

The dollar index rebounded on Thursday as investors adjusted their positions after a massive sell-off of the dollar this week, but the dollar outlook remained weak due to market concerns that the Trump administration's trade policy could drag economic growth. The report shows that the US dollar index narrowed after the expansion of the US wholesale in February was flat on a month-on-month basis.

The U.S. producer price index (PPI) remained flat in February, with an estimated increase of 0.3%; the core PPI, excluding food and energy, fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and was estimated to rise by 0.3%.

U.S. President Trump threatens to impose 200% tariffs on imported wine, cognac and other alcoholic goods from Europe, opening a new front for the global trade war, exacerbating financial market turmoil and triggering concerns about economic recession.

UBS Forex strategist Vassili Serebriakov said that the US dollar has experienced a sharp depreciation in the past few days and weeks, and the market is now entering a period of consolidation. "We believe the dollar may still rebound because the market continues to be impacted by tariff news and the peer-to-peer tariff deadline is aihuaforex.coming in early April." Marvin Loh, global market strategist at StateStreet, said: "The current market uncertainty, coupled with tariffs, trade wars, and instability in the geopolitical environment, is the main factor driving the violent fluctuations of the dollar."

Asian market

New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing Performance Index rose from 51.7 to 53.9 in February, the highest level since August 2022.

This steady growth was driven by strong output (52.4) and new orders (51.5), both of which also reached their best levels since August 2022. Meanwhile, employment soared to 54.0, up 3.2 percentage points from January, the highest level since September 2021.

Despite the strong data, business sentiment remains cautious. The proportion of negative aihuaforex.comments among respondents rose from 57.7% in January to 59.5% in February. Many manufacturers have listed weak orders and sluggish sales as ongoing challenges, indicating that although expansion has recovered.

BNZ senior economist Doug Steel welcomed the continued improvement, noting that "the recovery may be a little faster than what we currently predict."

European market

European industrial production in the euro zone increased steadily by 0.8% month-on-month in January, in line with market expectations. This growth was driven mainly by a 1.6% increase in intermediate product output and a 0.5% increase in capital product production. However, other categories also saw a decline, with energy production falling -1.2%, consumer durable goods falling -0.2%, and non-durable consumer goods falling -3.1%.

In the entire EU, industrial production increased by 0.3% month-on-month, which is relatively moderate. Among individual member countries, Lithuania (+4.6%), Portugal (+3.7%) and Austria (+3.3%) saw the largest increase, while Malta (-12.9%), Denmark (-10.6%) and Slovakia (-7.3%) saw the largest decrease.

Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB Management aihuaforex.committee of Germany, warned that if U.S. tariffs take effect in full, Germany could face a third consecutive year of economic contraction. In an interview with the BBC, Nager pointed out that without tariffs, the German economy is expected to stagnate, with a minimum growth rate of about 0.2%. As trade tensions escalate, the risk of another recession is growing.

Negel sharply criticized US President Donald Trump's tariff policy, calling it "economics of the past" and "absolutely not a good idea." He defended the EU's decision to impose retaliatory tariffs, adding that the response was "necessary" and not an option.

When talking about Germany's recent fiscal policy shift, Nagel described the decision to increase borrowing for defense and infrastructure spending as "extraordinary measures in extraordinary times."

He pointed out that the global economy is undergoing "structural changes", which justifies adopting a more flexible approach to fiscal management. While Germany has traditionally maintained strict budget discipline, the shift will provide “some fiscal breathing space” for recovery in the aihuaforex.coming years and send a “stable signal” to the market.

US Market

As of March 8In the week of the day, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell -2k to 220k, slightly lower than the expected 224k. The four-week moving average of first-time unemployment claims rose 1.5k to 226k.

For the week ending March 1, the number of people who renewed unemployment claims fell by -27k to 1870k. The four-week moving average of the number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits rose by 6k to 1872k.

The U.S. final demand PPI remained unchanged in February, below 0.3% expected. The 0.3% increase in aihuaforex.commodity prices on a month-on-month basis was offset by a 0.2% decrease in service prices on a month-on-month basis.

On the year-on-year calculation, PPI slowed to 3.2%, lower than 3.7% in January and lower than expected 3.3% year-on-year.

PPI, which excludes food, energy and trade services, rose 0.2% month-on-month. In the past 12 months, the indicator has grown by 3.3% year-on-year, maintaining a relatively stable rate.

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