The pressure on long-term treasury bonds in the UK is expected to ease, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 25

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

U.S. stock futures maintained a rise, S&P 500 futures rose 0.61%, Nasdaq futures rose 0.78%, and Dow Jones Index futures rose 0.17%. European stocks rose, with the Pan-European Stock 600 rising 0.2%. From a regional perspective, the FTSE 100 index in the UK remained flat, the German DAX index opened 0.2% higher, and the French CAC40 index rose 0.5%. So far, the Stoke Europe 600 index has achieved three consecutive gains, with a cumulative increase of 2.4% this week.

2. Market news interpretation

The pressure on long-term treasury bonds in the UK is expected to ease

⑴ Patrick Munnelly of TickmillGroup said that the UK Debt Management Office's adjusted government bond issuance plan for fiscal 2026 this week will ease the selling pressure on longer-term treasury bonds. ⑵ This strategy is adjusted to increase the issuance of short-term treasury bonds and reduce the issuance of long-term treasury bonds to alleviate the pressure on the long end of the yield curve. ⑶ The UK Debt Management Office reduced planned sales of longer-term Treasury bonds for the fiscal year by 10.4 billion pounds (about $13.9 billion) from the spring budget forecast level to 29.8 billion pounds. ⑷ At the same time, planned sales of short-term Treasury bonds increased by 7 billion pounds to 117.9 billion pounds.

India's foreign exchange reserves rose to a six-month high

⑴ As of April 18, 2025, India's foreign exchange reserves rose for the seventh consecutive week, reaching a six-month high of US$686.15 billion. ⑵Foreign exchange reserves increased by $8.3 billion during the reporting week, following a cumulative increase of $39.2 billion in the previous six weeks. ⑶India's foreign exchange reserve distanceIt is only $19 billion away from the all-time high of $704.89 billion set in September 2024. ⑷ Changes in foreign exchange reserves are mainly affected by the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market and the appreciation or depreciation of foreign currency assets held in the reserves. ⑸ During the reporting week, the Indian rupee appreciated by about 0.8% against the US dollar, recording its largest weekly gain since March 17, mainly benefiting from the inflow of foreign capital into the Indian stock market. ⑹The appreciation of the rupee is also affected by the weakening of the dollar, and market concerns that tariff issues may affect the US economy have brought pressure to the dollar.

Tariff policies disrupt supply chains. US airlines will face significant losses

Calp, CEO of General Electric Aerospace, recently warned in an interview that the US tariff policies pose risks to the aviation industry's supply chain. He said he had recommended to the US government that a zero-tariff policy will continue to be implemented in the aviation industry. According to reports, the US tariff policy has brought great uncertainty to the aviation industry, which has hindered the future development of related aihuaforex.companies. Supply chains related to the aviation industry are also under threat, and some supply may be interrupted by tariffs. The U.S. government's tariff policy will cost GE Aerospace more than $500 million this year.

Eurozone Treasury bond issuance remains stable

⑴Eurozone Treasury bond issuance in April has not been affected by recent market turmoil. It is expected that the issuance this month will reach 126 billion euros, a slight increase from 122 billion euros in March and also higher than 120 billion euros in April 2024. ⑵LBBW analyst Elmar Voelker pointed out that the primary market activity of the euro zone's treasury bonds has not yet responded to the recent sharp fluctuations in the bond market. ⑶ It is estimated that by the end of April, the total cumulative issuance of euro zone member countries so far this year will reach 557 billion euros. ⑷LBBW maintains the forecast that the euro zone issuance volume is 1.265 trillion euros throughout the year, but due to the increase in government spending, there is a risk of an increase in issuance volume.

The Hungarian central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and may only cut interest rates slightly before the end of the year

⑴ On April 25, the Hungarian central bank is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate of 6.5% for the seventh consecutive month next Tuesday. ⑵The 14 economists surveyed by Reuters all expect the Hungarian central bank to keep interest rates unchanged next week and expects to cut interest rates by only 25 basis points to 6.25% by the end of 2025. ⑶ Hungarian Central Bank new president Mikhai Varga (fore Prime Minister Victor Orban's finance minister) previously stated that since inflation reached the highest level of the 27 EU member states at the beginning of the year, there will be no interest rate cuts in the short term. ⑷Valga pointed out that although US tariffs may reduce Hungary's economic growth by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points, the central bank still needs to remain patient. The prospects for recovery remain unclear after two years of nearly stagnation. ⑸ Economists surveyed by Reuters expect Hungary's economic growth rate to be 1.75% in 2025, while the International Monetary Fund predicts to be only 1.4%, which will be Orban's weakest three-year economic performance since he took office in 2010. ⑹Morgan Stanley economistGeorgi Dyanov said: "Despite weak economic growth and inflation data, we expect the Hungarian central bank to continue to focus on financial and foreign exchange stability, maintaining the benchmark interest rate of 6.5%. "⑺ Although Hungary's inflation rate fell from a high to 4.8% in March, it was still the second highest in the EU, second only to Romania. ⑻S&P downgraded Hungary’s credit rating outlook this month from stable to negative, citing trade conflicts, reduced EU capital inflows and high debt costs caused by budget easing risks to fiscal stability. ⑼S&P said that if Hungary's fiscal performance worsens, external pressure increases, the EU's cancellation of large amounts of financial support or central bank policy mistakes affect Forlin's exchange rate and inflation, its rating may be further downgraded.

European Central Bank liquidity data: overnight loans and deposits

⑴ Reported on April 25 that the European Central Bank released the liquidity data for the day. ⑵ Data shows that the amount borrowed through overnight loan instruments on that day was 220 million euros, an increase from 100 million euros the previous day. ⑶ The amount of overnight deposits was 2726.03 billion euros, up from 2674.801 billion euros the previous day. ⑷ The current account balance is 215.4 billion euros, down from 254.486 billion euros the previous day.

The financial difficulties of British aihuaforex.companies are intensifying, and the risk of bankruptcy increases

⑴ The financial difficulties of British aihuaforex.companies are intensifying, and the risk of bankruptcy increases. ⑵ According to BegbiesTraynor's "Red Flag Alert" study, the number of aihuaforex.companies in the UK in "critical" financial difficulties rose by 13.1% in the first quarter of 2025. ⑶ Among them, the consumer-oriented industry situation is particularly severe, with the number of bars and restaurants in critical situations rising by 31.2%, the tourism industry rising by 25.5%, and the general retailers rising by 12.4%. ⑷ Real estate and property services, construction and general retail are barometer industries of the UK economy, and more than one-third of the aihuaforex.companies are in critical difficulties, reflecting economic uncertainty. ⑸ BegbiesTraynor warns ������ Group�� that if the pressure faced by aihuaforex.companies fails to alleviate in the next 12 months, a large number of aihuaforex.companies may go into formal bankruptcy.

The Swiss economy faces challenges of uncertainty in trade policy

⑴ Martin Schlegel, chairman of the Swiss National Bank, said on April 25, 2025 that rising global economic risks may have a negative impact on Swiss economic growth. ⑵ He pointed out that uncertainty in trade policy is at a "very high level" and warned that global economic integration could be damaged in the long run. ⑶ As an export-oriented country, Switzerland is particularly impacted by trade protectionism, and its economic growth rate is expected to be lower than previous expectations. ⑷Schlegel mentioned that the Swiss National Bank expects Switzerland's GDP growth rate to be 1% to 1.5% in 2025, which is lower than its average growth rate.1.8%. ⑸ He also emphasized that although price stability cannot eliminate uncertainty in trade policy, under the current environment, maintaining price stability is crucial to the smooth operation of the economy. ⑹ Swiss National Bank sets inflation targets between 0-2% to support economic prosperity and social cohesion. ⑺Although the recent inflation rate is only 0.3%, Schlegel said that the Swiss National Bank will adjust its monetary policy when necessary, including adjusting interest rates and foreign exchange intervention. ⑻ He also pointed out that uncertainty in trade policies may lead to delays in investment and consumption decisions, which further limits the role price stability can play.

UK retail sales rose three times, but tariffs may set confidence in April

The UK National Statistics Office said on Friday that sales in March increased by 0.4% from the previous month, continuing the growth momentum in the first two months of this year. This exceeded market expectations of a 0.4% decline in monthly sales. According to the UK Met Office, the region has ushered in its sunniest March on record, and clothing sales have been boosted. This is the best continuous performance of overall sales growth since the economy emerged from the impact of the coronavirus lockdown in early 2021. However, a long-awaited recovery in consumer spending could be a flash in the pan due to trade tensions and a series of annual price increases from municipal taxes to energy bills.

Indonesia hopes to achieve "fair and just" trade in U.S. tariff negotiations

A senior Indonesian economy minister and top negotiator said on Friday that Indonesia wants to establish a "fair and just" trade relationship with the United States, so it puts national interests first in the current negotiations on U.S. tariffs. Head of the Indonesian delegation, Airlangga Hartarto and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, have been negotiating in the United States since last week on the U.S.'s plan to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia. These tariffs have been put on hold for 90 days. "In the negotiation process, Indonesia prioritizes national interests and encourages strengthening of bilateral relations with the United States," he said at an online press conference.

The "active cycle" of wage growth in Japan may end next year

According to Nikkei News, the United States continues to wield "tariff sticks" around the world, putting pressure on Japanese aihuaforex.companies, which are already suffering from long-term labor shortages, and the risk of a sharp decline in returns is threatening Japan's wage growth. "Japan wage growth has been higher than inflation in the past two years. But this positive cycle may end next year," said Hiroshi Matsumoto, a senior researcher at Pataca Japan.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1355, a drop of 0.30%. Before the New York market, the euro-dollar price rose at its intraday level, making up for some of its morning losses, and negative pressure caused by its trading below the EMA50 continues, as bear correction waves dominate and negatives appear on (RSI)Signal.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3320, a drop of 0.14%. Before New York, GBPUSD fell in recent intraday trading, a correction move designed to take a breath after an intraday bull market, with prices trying to unload (RSI) paving the way for a regaining positive momentum.

Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3293.03, a drop of 1.64%. Before New York, gold prices fell on the last trading day to surpass its EMA50 support, and its positive opportunity was related to the emergence of negative signals on (RSI) to rely on a smaller bullish bias line on a short-term basis while stabilizing at the key support level of $3,290.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 33.290, a drop of 0.78%. Before New York, silver prices experienced calm early trading, as negative signals on (RSI) emerged, causing them to fall, trying to gain positive motivations that could help them recover and rise again, trading along the bullish revised trend line on a short-term basis.

Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 61.940, a drop of 1.35%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices fell in recent intraday trading. Affected by the stability of the current resistance at $63.20, relying on the support of EMA50, when aihuaforex.compared with the price trend, negative overlap signals began to appear on (RSI), strengthening the negative pressure on prices, especially by the negative pattern (i.e., rising wedge pattern) formed on a short-term basis.

4. Institutional Views

Think Tank: Trump's tariff policy will exacerbate the gap between the rich and the poor. The poor pay more than three times the tax burden on the poor. According to the latest analysis of the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), the tariff policy implemented by US President Trump will lead to the increase in the actual tax burden of low-income families exceeding three times that of the wealthy. The report outlines the impact of current tariffs on different income groups through 2026: Annual incomeHouseholds with an income of less than $28,600 will spend 6.2% of their income due to rising prices, while wealthy people with an annual income of at least $914,900 will only spend 1.7% more. The additional burden ratio for middle-income households ($55,100 to $94,100) is about 5%.

The above content is about "[Aihua Official Website]: The pressure on long-term treasury bonds in the UK is expected to ease. Analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 25" was carefully aihuaforex.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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