Trump sends a major signal to tariffs, the dollar index rebounds slightly, gold falls below $3,000

On April 7, in the early trading of Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 102.72. Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index rebounded slightly and returned to above the 103 mark for a time, finally closing up 0.89% to 102.93 as investors continued to weigh the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade and the economy. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.009%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.662%. As the intensified trade war sparked concerns about a global recession, investors sold gold to make up for their losses in the wider market collapse, spot gold once plummeted more than 3%, and fell to an intraday low of $3,015.53 intraday, falling nearly $100 from the high, and finally closed down 2.4% at $3,038.71 per ounce. Spot silver plummeted 7.01% to $29.57 per ounce. Precious metals continued to plummet at the beginning of Monday, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts continued to rise, moving closer to the five interest rate cuts throughout the year. International oil prices continued to plummet as tariffs and investors expect the U.S. to fall into a recession higher. WTI crude oil finally closed down 6.39% at $62.08 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 5.58% at $65.71 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices fell 10.9% last week, the biggest one-week decline in a year and a half, while WTI crude oil prices fell 10.6%, the biggest one-week decline in two years.

Analysis of major currencies trends

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 102.72. The sharp decline in the index accelerated again after President Donald Trump announced what he called “liberation day” on Wednesday, which also strengthenedThe prospect of a transatlantic trade war and added additional impetus to the idea of ​​a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Technically, the US dollar index is trying to close above the 102.70 level. If this attempt is successful, it will move towards the nearest resistance level 103.20–103.40.

https://aihuaforex.comEuro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0959. The euro/dollar rose for the second straight week and returned to the area above 1.1100 after the White House announced new tariffs. Germany's trade balance results and euro zone retail sales are expected to be announced on April 7. Germany's final inflation rate will be announced on April 11, with current account results also announced. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains below the 1.1000 level, it will move towards the support level of 1.0920–1.0935.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2908. The main reason for the decline in the US dollar is the increased risk of a recession in the United States, thanks to President Trump's radical tariff policies. The so-called "liberation day" finally arrived after months of speculation about the scope and extent of Trump's "peer-to-peer tariffs", which further exacerbated the pain of the dollar. Technically, if this attempt is successful, the GBP/USD will move to the next support level, which is in the range of 1.2860–1.2875.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 2984.12. Spot gold continued to fall, losing the 3,000 integer mark, as international trade concerns heated up, U.S. stock index futures continued to plummet, and Japanese, Australian and New Zealand stock markets also followed the decline, and investors continued to sell gold to make up for their losses in the wider market collapse.

Technical: The daily gold chart shows that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from nearly 80 hit on Thursday to 50, suggesting that the recent decline in gold prices is not just a technical pullback.金价关键水平是3030美元/盎司，这是上升通道的下限和20日简单移动平均线(SMA)汇合之处。 Once the gold price falls belowThis level, and this level is confirmed as resistance level, $3000/oz (psychological level, static level) may be considered the next support level, followed by $2940/oz (50-day moving average) and $2900/oz (static level, integer level). On the upside, the first resistance of gold prices is $3,100 per ounce (the midpoint of the upward channel). If you break through this level, the next obstacles to gold prices are $3135/ounce (static level) and $3167-3170/ounce (historical high, upper limit of the upward channel).

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading was around 59.60. The decline in oil prices reflects uncertainty in the market and may suppress global crude oil prices in the short term, especially if trade tensions hinder economic growth in major oil-consuming regions. As the market absorbs the full impact of tariffs, volatility may increase. In the next week, the market will closely monitor the actual implementation of tariff policies in various countries and whether OPEC+ will send a signal of production adjustment. In this eventful spring, the pricing logic of the crude oil market is being aihuaforex.completely rewritten.

Technical: From the daily chart level, crude oil continues to fluctuate around the lower level after falling below the lower edge of the range. Oil prices rose in the short term and broke through the suppression of the moving average system, and the objective medium-term trend entered a period of conversion. However, from the perspective of momentum, long and short momentum has not yet had the momentum to overwhelm the side. It is expected that the medium-term trend will still maintain a period of oscillation, waiting to establish a clear trend direction. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil fell sharply, all gains since mid-March were recovered, and oil prices hit a low of around 60.30. The moving average system diverges downward, and the short-term objective trend direction is downward. The K-line closed 7 physical negative lines in a row, and the bears were full of momentum. It is expected that the short-term trend of crude oil in the day should be adjusted at a low level and continue to move downward.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on April 7, 2025

①To be determined China's foreign exchange reserves in March

②14:00 Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate in February

③14:00 Germany's seasonally adjusted trade account in February

④14:00 UK's March Halifax seasonally adjusted housing price index monthly rate in March

⑤16:30 Eurozone April Sentix Investor Confidence Index

⑥17:00 Eurozone February retail sales monthly rate

The above content is about "[Aihua Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Trump released a major tariff signal, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, and gold fell below $3,000", which was carefully aihuaforex.compiled and edited by the Avatrade foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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