Trump's tariffs "scare" American consumers! , the US dollar index fell

On March 26, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 104.22. The uncertainty over Trump's plan to impose tariffs on Tuesday kept traders cautious, with the U.S. dollar index turning down after hitting a two-week high and finally closing down 0.09% to 104.21. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.3200%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.0340%. Supported by the demand for hedging, spot gold maintained a volatile upward trend, encountered resistance and fell back at 3035, and finally closed up 0.29% at $3019.82 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 2.1% at $33.71 per ounce. Although Trump's secondary tariffs on Venezuela boosted oil prices, Russia and Ukraine's ceasefire in the Black Sea and energy facilities limited the increase in oil prices. WTI crude oil eventually closed up 0.05% to $69.14 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.15% to $73.12 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies trends

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 104.22. President Trump has hinted that he would exempt certain countries from tariffs in April, increasing hopes of limited impact on global trade. Trump also reiterated the upcoming tariffs on aluminum, cars and medicines, keeping the market alert for trade-related volatility. While both Fed officials are neutral, traders believe inflation concerns may slow down the pace of rate cuts. The core PCE data on Friday remained a key event, with the market closely following the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. Technically, if the US dollar index falls below 50MA103.79, it will goSupport level 103.20–103.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.0790. The EUR/USD has slowed its recent decline, but the EUR/USD remains down for the fifth consecutive trading day as the price move continues to test below 1.0800. The euro is struggling to gain a foothold because of a clear lack of EU economic data, which puts Fiber bidders at the mercy of geopolitical headlines and market flows from U.S. data releases. Technically, the nearest support level of the EUR/USD is in the range of 1.0760–1.0775. A break below this level will open the way for testing the next support level 1.0630–1.0650.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2945. GBP/USD continues to wear concern lines in the chart near the 1.3000 mark as GBP/USD falls back to the middle zone after the recent bullish recovery loses momentum. The pair has not yet seen a confirmed pullback as both pound and dollar traders are waiting for stronger signs of economic health in both economies. Technically, if this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next resistance level 1.3050–1.3070.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading on Wednesday, around 3018.01. Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar remains at a disadvantage and the U.S. real yields are usually inversely proportional to gold prices. Stimulated by U.S. trade policy, inflation expectations have risen unexpectedly, boosting demand for gold. Market sentiment is mixed, with the rise and fall of the US stock index differentiating. According to the World Federation of Large Enterprises (CB), U.S. data shows consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level in more than four years, as households fear a recession in the future amid high inflation data. This depicts the prospect of stagflation.

Technical: The upward trend in gold is still in play, although buyers lack confidence to achieve a daily closing price above the weekly high of $3,036, which may exacerbate the testing of the all-time high of $3,057. A breakthrough through the latter will pave the way for testing $3,100. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, with momentum supporting buyers. Therefore, gold and silver prices will rise further. On the other hand, if gold falls below 3000The dollar, which will expose the swing high of $2,956 on February 24, followed by the $2,900 mark and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) $2,874.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 69.11. International oil prices fluctuated after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced a ceasefire agreement with Russia on Black Sea shipping and energy infrastructure. However, market concerns about the possible tariffs on countries that import Venezuelan oil have supported oil prices and limited the decline.

Technical: As Russia and Ukraine agree to the Black Sea breakaihuaforex.com battle, the stock fell from its intraday high. If WTI crude oil closes below $68.50, it will move towards its nearest support level, the $67.00 to $67.50 range.

Forex market trading reminder on March 26, 2025

15:00 UK February CPI monthly rate

15:00 UK February retail price index monthly rate

17:00 Switzerland March ZEW Investor Confidence Index

20:30 US February durable goods order monthly rate

20:30 UK Finance Minister Reeves released a spring budget statement

22:30 US February EIA crude oil inventories in the week from March 21

22:30 US to March 21

22:30 US to March 21

22:30 US to March 21

22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from March 21

22:30 EIA strategic oil reserve inventory in the week from the United States to March 21

Federal Mousalem delivered a speech on the next day

The Bank of Canada released minutes of the monetary policy meeting on the next day

The next day at 01:30 ECB Executive Member Chipolone attended a group discussion

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